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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suresh who wrote (19746)	2/8/1999 10:26:00 PM
From: Clint E.	Respond to of 70390

Hi Suresh. >>>>First fundamentalists made the mistake of not recognizing the technical strength in the sector. Now the technicians are making the mistake of believing the strength was due to fundamentals. Well said. Clint

To: Suresh who wrote (19746)	2/9/1999 8:13:00 AM
From: Iris Shih	Respond to of 70390

Suresh, "First fundamentalists made the mistake of not recognizing the technical strength in the sector. Now the technicians are making the mistake of believing the strength was due to fundamentals. " Look at this chart and tell me what you think. iqc.com I started noticing pria at the end of Oct when its volume was picking up. I asked my husband and his colleagues about the semi equipment stocks, whom I believe have the first hand knowledge on semi (equipment) industry. They all assured me that we hadn't seen the bottom (worst) yet. And in the mid-Nov. after pria reported disappointing earning, the stock jumped with great volume. I bought some at that time regardless what other told me about its deteriorating fundamentals. Same goes with other stocks, ie etec, klac, nvls, amat....... If you look at the volumes of these stocks when they started breaking out from their bottoms, you have to ask yourself if somebody out there knows something the public don't. Why the volume came in when the fundamentals and technicals looked so shaky(lets look at pria at the end of Oct.) Did the smart money know it at the end of Oct. or in mid Nov. that pria has seen the worst for this cycle? Did the huge volume (smart money who knows the fundamentals) buying first catch technicians' eyes and then the crowds follow? Technicians follow fundamentalists or fundamentalists follow technicians? I am not a good chart reader but I learn to let the charts tell me what to do next. I don't use those complicated indicators but I respect volume, price, MA and some simple chart patterns (ie cup and handle). Like I said the other day, that semi equipment stocks are ready for a consolidation after amat reports. But I don't expect amat go all way down to low 30s or 40s again this time (if there's no big market correction). But what do I know? Let them tell me. Longs and shorts can make money in this crazy market as long as we don't get too greedy. Iris