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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: roly who wrote (28092)	2/8/1999 11:55:00 PM
From: nnillionaire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Roly re: " Just a word of advice, we know that this sector will be out of favored again sometime. Know when to get out and buy again when the stock is low." Please give us your estimation of when you think it's astute to get out, and when you think the stock will again be low. \|

To: roly who wrote (28092)	2/9/1999 1:17:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

roly, based on the dw high today of $67 and calculating off the $57 shakeout recently I come to a new projected high of $87 (ten "x" boxes times 3 = $30 + $57). Remember, my absolute standard deviation high is $101.5967. Using the same approach my absolute low was $20.5298 earlier this year. In 1997 my absolute was $104.5494 and absolute low in 1996 of $21.74. The actual DW absolute high in 1997 was $108. Imo, it appears that the standard deviation is useful in projecting but not absolute. We will just have to wait and see. Just my opinions. Paul

To: roly who wrote (28092)	2/9/1999 8:17:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Roly, just a final observation before signing off. As expected, no one disputed my numbers or even discussed my numbers. The focus of the day is how much AMAT has gone up. This reminds of the old days in HK and Japan. Specifically, I remember the HK market being so wild that maids with no idea what PE was were playing the stock market during their daily visit to the food market. The Nikkei was trading at nose bleed PE and yes, those investors also said PE is an obsolete tool. Ramsey