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Non-Tech : SATH - Shop At Home -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (737)	2/9/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Fred Puppet	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1329

Here's the SATH scenario for 10 Feb. : This all started back on 28 January, when SATH was at $12 and the company announced their plan to reveal earnings and internet partners on 10 Feb. At that time, the stock was in the hands of long-term investors who had bought SATH under $5. They were getting a bit anxious about the quick run to $12. On the other hand, amateur speculators who were too dumb to catch previous internet plays figured they were getting this one spoon fed to them. Somehow they figured they were part of a select few who knew about the upcoming 10 Feb. announcement. Since nobody else knows about this, I'll buy SATH now, and everyone else will want to buy it from me at a higher price once they hear about the company and the internet plans on 10 Feb. Of course, news of the upcoming 10 Feb press release was very widely distributed, in several press releases, on numerous news wires, on the SATH web site, and on the SATH cable channel. Every novice who might wish to be a successful speculator has heard the news, and those who might buy have already bought. In the process, they ran the stock from $12 to $30. During that run, one by one, all the previous long-term shareholders who got in early have sold. On the other hand, the newcomers all think they got in on the ground floor, and are all waiting to sell on the tremendous pop tomorrow. Since very few people know there is an internet announcement coming on 10 Feb, I've got to hold my shares until then. Once the news is announced, everyone else will want to buy and SATH will shoot to $50 ... $100 ... $150 .... So now, the entire float is in the hands of amateur speculators, all of whom are planning to sell on 10 Feb. With all those people planning on selling, the stock can only go down. The real question is, who will buy their shares? Once SATH drops to the mid teens, there will be a few shorts who will buy. However, there are many more speculators on the long side than on the short side. So, after all the shorts have covered, there will be nobody left to buy. Remember, the long-term investors were willing to get into this stock under $5, but no higher. So, it looks like lots of novices who were planning on a short-term win will be sitting on a long-term loss.