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Non-Tech : New Holland and the Ag Equipment Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Stichnoth who wrote (55)	2/9/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 113

Negatve outlook on farm economy generally, and Deere's take on it are pretty well discounted in share prices IMO...note that no big drop on or after 1/26 release date. Besides, companies have to be a bit negative in their disclosures to prevent and/or defend against lawsuits. Forecasts are always a crap shoot and if a surprise occurs, it'll be to the upside. Many farmers will position themselves for low price expectations and that positioning makes favorable price outcomes more likely. Besides, as long as farming occurs, they are consuming "using up" equipment that will have to be replaced at some point. When a good year comes along...there will be a bounce back. I suspect the probability of 1 or 2 good price years in the next 5 is high enough to make these a good bet. I don't own Deere but if it dives again, I'll climb into the cab with ya. Be well, Bob