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To: diana g who wrote (37114)	2/9/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

Diana The funny thing about Thean's post is that he was obviously responding to PK thru his in-messages and thought it was for the Invest-LTD thread rather than here. He is a good guy and very bright and would not have said that here. That said, he is over there because he is the one not interested in opposing opinions. This thread actually has a much more lively discourse than Invest-LTD. Over there, it is mostly people looking for today's daytrade along with hourly pronouncements from the prophet of doom warning that the end of the world is near. Now if we could just get Slider to double his Prozac prescription....<ggg> Best, John

To: diana g who wrote (37114)	2/9/1999 12:28:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 95453

Diana, Let me comment on the pair of if's and this paragraph: "I agree that if there is minimal Asian (or other) demand growth, and no production reduction, then oil price recovery may well be far off. But that's a big pair of 'Ifs', I think, and we must take into account that the market looks forward quite a distance, and that other market segments prices will affect the attractiveness of this sector." 1. Asian recovery - counting all pac-rim countries including the biggies (Japan and China), the chance for a overall recovery enough to stimulate stronger oil demand than in 1998 is pretty small. Overcapacity is the culprit in short. 2. Production reduction - have you seen the latest OPEC adherance rate to their promised cut? They have played this game long enough may be someday people will wake up and realize that this is just a game they play. 3. "Market looks forward quite a distance" - in a lot of other sectors, absolutely. For this sector, the answer is no IMO. If you have stuck around long enough to live through the beginning of the decline in Oct-Nov 1997, you would have realized that dayrate and oil price peaked at that almost same time frame as well. It was all downhill from there. True money investing in this sector wants to see "show me the money" first, and then they move in - big time I might add. For those who have lived through this industry for at least 20 years, one can pretty much sum it up as the Dog's favorite phrase - "it's the price of oil, stupid". OT - about my previous post that had insulted some people - it was not prudent on my part in retrospect and I offer my apologies. However, I stick to the spirit of the message - those who really feel insulted know who they are.

To: diana g who wrote (37114)	2/9/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

Growing economic malaise to shrink oil demand-IEA (Adds data on stocks, OPEC) LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - World oil demand will recover even more slowly in 1999 than previously expected due to spreading economic slowdown in developing countries, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. Shaving its annual demand forecast, the Paris-based agency said the world's need for oil would rise only 1.0 million barrels per day (bpd) or 1.4 percent to 74.67 million bpd this year. ''Prospects for upward revisions to demand are unlikely given the demand-inhibiting conditions that dominated 1998,'' said the agency's monthly oil market report, which last month forecast 1999 demand at 75.05 million. Oil prices are languishing near their lowest in a decade in nominal terms due to weak Asian demand and rising Iraqi production that have severely inflated global stocks. The agency said industrialised countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development would account for most of the increase in world oil demand in 1999. Deliveries to the United States, the world's largest oil market, were expected to rise by 360,000 bpd or almost two percent despite a likely slowing of the U.S. economy, assuming normal winter weather. European demand growth was pegged at 120,000 bpd or 0.8 percent. But while signs of stability were appearing in some Asian countries, economic troubles in Brazil might well affect the rest of Latin America and there were worries about the strength of the Chinese and Indian economies, the agency said. Such problems might ultimately affect North America and Europe, it noted. ''For these reasons, the downside risk to the oil demand projections remains greater than the upside,'' it said, adding demand last year had proven even weaker than expected, rising only 270,000 bpd. Higher demand in China, the rest of non-OECD Asia and the Middle East in 1999 was expected to be offset by stagnant demand in non-OECD Europe, Latin America and Africa and a continued decline in the former Soviet Union. Worsening the picture for the glutted market, the agency added that supply discipline inside oil producer club OPEC had deteriorated in January. It said initial estimates showed compliance by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with its own production target fell to 75 pecent, with output rising by 248,000 bpd to 27.62 million bpd. Cash-squeezed cartel members are trying to curb collective output by 2.6 million bpd to try to raise flagging prices. The IEA said prospects for growth in non-OPEC output had diminished, adding supply from producers outside the cartel was expected to rise only 200,000 bpd to 44.8 million bpd. The agency's previous downward revisions to non-OPEC supply have been based on the impact of low oil prices on oil company upstream spending. OECD industry stocks fell sharply in December, driven down by tax-related selling on U.S. inventories and by lower levels in Japan, the agency said. The drop of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in December resulted in an unexpectedly large 500,000 bpd quarterly stockdraw, the IEA said. But the stocks ended the year at 2,751 million barrels, a little more than 100 million above December 1997 and more than 200 million above year-end levels in 1995 and 1996. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Related News Categories