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Gold/Mining/Energy : Winspear Diaminds (Bulls Board) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomato who wrote (433)	2/9/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: chummer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1172

Tomato, I believe this is the post you are talking about(if it's not,sorry, but it's a good read nonetheless). Author: WillP -- Date:1999-02-09 09:45:26 Subject: Odds and Ends Greetings Old: Glad you enjoyed it. I know I did. You ask a good question. I pretty much answered it in (my?) Winspear's Rocks subthread...with a post heading of Unique. What I would like to point out is that the caustic fusion results almost invariably tell a story. Rarely good...almost always bad; and only on one or two occasions are they borderline. As for borderline results... Look at the numbers for Aber's A154-North. Not that it matters. Much of that pipe has to be mined as "waste" for the 154 South open pit in any case. The fact that this waste grades 2.5 carats per tonne with a valuation of $30 US+...is kind of neat. Mind you, that valuation could climb. Less than 100 tonnes were sampled. Imagine if a good sized gem were found. Imagine if three were! No...lets not go there. :-) I might ask...what was it about the Ashton Canada results that gave you cause for optimism? (I note that ACA stock keeps wanting to climb...for what reason? I actually did an in depth analysis of ACA's K14 pipe...along with about 16 others. It was part of my own due diligence. I've uploaded them all to my web page, but not disseminated it by other means. I'm not a for-pay analyst. Odds are such a bother in assessing a play like this...you have to know the question in precise detail: What are the chances of this being the find of the millenium? Very low indeed. Not zero, however. What are the chances of this property being placed into production? Fair to good. What are the chances of the 6000 tonne sample being on par with the mini-bulk sample's $343 per tonne? Moderately low. What are the chances of the 6000 tonne sample being $200 per tonne or higher? Moderate. What are the chances of the 6000 tonne sample being $160 per tonne or higher? Fairly high. What are the chances of the 6000 tonne sample being $130 per tonne or higher? High. What are the chances of the 6000 tonne sample being below $100 per tonne? Very low. I guess you will have to assess my subjective terms against your own...but I pointed out that modelling (or just good old fashioned intuition) gives a median value of $160 US and therefore the odds of that are 1:1. That's 50/50. Even Steven. At $160 US the dyke would be easily minable and suitably profitable. You can review my posts on the "Winspear's Rocks" to assess whether or not I have been unusually optimistic or conservative in my assumptions. Back to Ashton...Major General...DHK as opposed to Aber...Diamet...Southernera...Mountain Province: Take Aber's or Mountain Province better discoveries, from discovery hole to bulk sample. Were there ever any bad results released? Did large diamonds (0.2 ct) come from CF of 700 kg or less? Did any of the LDC mini bulk samples lead to uneconomic values? Now look at Winspear's news over the past 2 years: #1. CF of boulders, dyke intersections, and breccia. #2. Two 100 tonne mini bulk samples. #3. CF of 1200 kg dyke intersections on NW peninsula. CF of North shore...SE dykes...and step-out holes. #4. No drill misses within a rather large area of interest. (Tonnage implications.) Did they get lucky? Maybe. Luck is something usually credited to the fortunate in life. A world class hockey netminder...a Cy Young winning pitcher. Chuck Fipke. If I may steal a line from James Bond: Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Thrice is enemy action. How many times lucky is lucky? When does illusion become a reality? Personally...I got lucky on Diamet. I got skilled on Aber. I hope not to get 'cocky' on Winspear. I like hitting homeruns...but I'm not going to be swinging at every pitch. The chances are good...but there are no certainties in life, other than death. I just reviewed my K-14 page. Seems that there was a 43 kg sample that gave decent numbers. Buried in with the remainder of the nearly 400 kg that I have data on...it looked pretty bleak. You should see the diamond distribution curve I've got for that one. Not pretty. Consider that it actually had about 60% more total diamonds than Aber's A154 south, but only 20% at the 1 millimetre size. And it keeps getting worse from there. (That's including the 43 kg sample as well.) That much was known at the caustic fusion stage. But that was then...this is now. Maybe the ADP will get lucky and find a decent pipe. Where there's a will there's a way. They'll just be doing it without this Will. Hope it all helps. I'm not trying to promote Winspear stock...although I should since I'm long. But I'm longer on Aber...and haven't said a word there. Yet. Cheers, and good luck.

To: Tomato who wrote (433)	2/9/1999 3:08:00 PM
From: teevee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1172

Tomato, He has made a couple of great posts. The way I read his evaluation is that you get those numbers with the big stones out. He anticipates, conservatively $US160/tonne versus the $89/tonne that was in the release. This is in part because he predicts a higher grade than the 1.14 carats per tonne. I agree with him on this. He also, carefully states that the big stones are there, and therefore should not be discounted, and goes on to predict some big stones showing up. The key is, what value will the big stones be? If they are as good as the last batch, The average value per carat will increase to close to $US400 per carat and if the grade comes higher at 1.35 carats per tonne, we are going to end up with an implied value of about $US540/tonne or $CDN800/tonne. Bottom line, he is looking for surprises on the upside. Should we be disapointed with AVERAGE values from the bulk coming in at $US160/tonne (equivilent to .5 ounce gold/tonne), and a 10 million tonne deposit(equivilent to >5 million ounces gold), I would expect a downward adjustment in price expectations, but to where, I'm not sure yet. regards, teevee