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Technology Stocks : Alliance Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lewis who wrote (4669)	2/9/1999 4:53:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9582

Steve, IMHO 1. Regular SRAM business sort of dead end for growth - cache ram market takes another hit when PIII, K6-3/K7, CeleronA incorporates level II cache into CPU; long run I don;t see 'portable' SRAM too far to go - at 0.25um/0.18um, SRAM gets incorporated into processor too. 2. Other business - which other business? 4M video is dead, they don't really have 16M videos that I know of. Besides, there are probably 4 other big boys avowed to target video market and avowed to each take 50% or market. As for main memory, they are late in changing over to sub-0.25um process. My guess is they are at 0.28um and trying to go 0.25um, like the Koreans. But they have one over the Koreans, the fabs are probably ready to process down to 0.18um while the Koreans (Hyundai and LG that is, not Samsung) are still looking for cash to convert. So for main memory, unless the upturn comes quick, I personally do not believe they can make money in it. But really, is this what they are doing? Above are just my guesses, frankly I do not have any firm data to support it one way or the other. 3. Foundry holdings - this may be the best part of ALSC. As for IPOs, my guess is they really will wait till the general upturn takes hold before IPO. If nothing else, who is going to subscribe at any kind of a reasonable share price? 4. Any other holdings like Maverick etc. may mean something in $, but does not a core business make. What other business directions are they taking? Their basic strategy 3 years ago of going into DRAMs/flash/graphic basically did not pan out. That was evident about one year ago. But over the last year, they have not really laid out clearly which directions they are taking. But of course, they may be hiding stuff in R&D that they have not announced. If and when they do, I'll take another hard look at the new strategy. Until that day, I would rather go pick at other pastures - e.g. in the IP heavy logic chip segment, I think the upturn has already started e.g. LSI, LSCC, XLNX etc. etc. Up this upturn in mind, would rather play the big boys and not the little guys whose business I know not much about. patrick