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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (28114)	2/9/1999 4:28:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hitachi unfreezes capital spending to upgrade DRAM fab TOKYO -- Hitachi Ltd. here has made a last-minute addition to upgrade its major fab at Hitachinaka, Japan. The company added $90 million to its semiconductor capital spending, boosting the tab to a total of $440 million by the end of the current fiscal year on March 31 semibiznews.com

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (28114)	2/9/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

Jeffrey, I do think you have successfully identified one of the essential problems with short term trading in this sector, and that is the unpredictability of the big moves. I had to learn this myself the hard way, and I now confine any short term trading to a small portion of my portfolio, and mainly for entertainment, on a time-permitting basis.

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (28114)	2/9/1999 7:23:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jeff: Relax, I said congratulations to longs and I meant it. Re: "What's your point?" Funny, I could ask the same of your post. My post just illustrates there is a different way to approach this stock. Re: "Why would any investor want to even attempt to play this gambling type game?" Some investors choose to trade and do it well; some are long term investors. I am both. And if you want to call reduction of an equity exposure to the market and this sector through sale of AMAT gambling, then call me a high roller. Also, I find that being in this stock as I choose when market conditions warrant reduces my risk. Re: "So, you sold your AMAT the week of 12/21/98. The AMAT high for that week was 46 11/16 and its low was 42 1/2. Let's assume you are the successful trader we know you are and say you sold near the high at 46. Who is better off today?" Ronald Regan? Well, it all depends what I did with my AMAT proceeds in a tax deferred account. CYMI was sure nice at $14.5 avearge cost and has outperformed AMAT since then. I would say you are ahead by a few points in a personal account but not by much even considering taxes and commissions. If you care, I left in the early 50s in my personal money. I have been trading it both ways taking advantage of the extreme volatility, liquidity and analyst head games. I have played many cycles while you have sat still which is a one good approach so long as you do not do a round trip when the cycle turns if that is your choice. Surely, AMAT has exceeded everyone's expectations in price appreciation and I said it could go higher in my posts. But nobody can argue that it is not overvalued on a historical basis at this point in the cycle even considering a generally higher P/B and P/S on the overall market. Nobody. Smart people realize this and do what they will with that information. If you sit still, you are assuming that market risk of valuation whether you know it or not. And if AMAT continues in a trading range or even declines short term, I could come out ahead over time. And I don't really care if I don't beat you and you turn out to have a bigger member than me. AMAT serves my purposes just fine as it produces a nice income and capital gains. My goal is to make the most money in the least amount of time all risks considered. I want to milk this cycle for everything it is worth. Re: "Maybe it's just my own personal investment bias but I think the greedy and complacent longs did better." You are right -- it is your opinion measured at this point in time according to your goals with this stock, not mine. Let's see where the stock is if and when you sell it. It is easy to crow at the highs but it is not a profit until you lock it in if that is your choice. I do not have an AMAT bumper sticker. AMAT is a vehicle to make money on both the short and long side and not a fan club option for me. I like the people at AMAT but I am not married to them as I already have a wife and family. Re: "Well, at least you are helping Schwab reach its quarterly earnings goals with the commissions it is making from you." Thanks for your concern, but swinging $29.95 for lots of 500 to 1000 won't drive me to the poor house. E-Trade at $19.95 is good as well so long as they are working that day. Good luck.