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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hector who wrote (96569)	2/9/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

David, Let's first leave the short-term view aside. AFA I am concerned, that's a crap shoot anyway. Long term, if you do agree that DELL is a wonderful company (no contention here) but are concerned about it's valuation, may I ask what valuation technique you are using? As I said, if the numbers are not perfect, I would analyze why they are not so and if from that I have any concern for the long term I will bail. But I am not going to dream up long term concerns because of recent price appreciations. TIA! -BGR.

To: Hector who wrote (96569)	2/9/1999 10:48:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

David, I agree with what you are saying to some (I do believe that Dell's share price has gotten overheated). But I must take issue with one point that you made: Only in a mania can a stock that was $3 three years ago, be $100 today. Could it be that three years ago there was excessive skepticism? Let's say that you are correct in that the stock could see 20 pts in downside in a few more days. That would put the price at around $75 - $80. That would requires an annual appreciation of 198%, which is roughly three times its historic growth rate. What that tells me is that the $3 price was much too low, probably because there was an air of doubt that permeated thinking about this company, but as events unfolded the company proved its mettle. So the major mania might actually have been 3 years ago when the market might best be characterized as going through irrational depression. Seeing successive earnings up by 60%+ per year acts like valium to depressed investors. What this tells me is that had the market properly appreciated Dell, the shares would have been selling for around $15 rather than $3. Shows how smart investors like Kemble and Sig and Mohan and Patrick and Drew and Laura and Venkie and ... are. I sure wish I had spotted Dell 3 year ago like they did. TTFN, CTC