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To: Thean who wrote (7275)2/9/1999 10:09:00 PM
From: The Ox  Respond to of 14427
 
I was just looking at the charts and I am curious as well to see if the Nasdaq will bounce before or near the 2250 mark. I still have a strong hunch that we will get a relief rally very soon. Then, after a short run, we trend down until end of March.

Dollar index bumping against upper trend line.
XOI looks like it's ready to break back down.
Long bond found resistance and backed off slightly.

I have been formulating a theory and if any of you are interested you can look at the Trend Watch chart of the DJIA in an attempt to visualize this hypothesis. decisionpoint.com Draw an imaginary trend line from the low of Oct 97 through the low of Oct 98 and extend in both directions. This is the new course for the DOW, not as severe a slope as the trend being shown on the Trend watch chart. You can draw a parallel trend line on the top of the recent highs that matches almost exactly the lower imaginary trend line. I think that this trend will hold for a while (possibly a year or more) before we get another relatively gradual shift of the long term trend to a more sideways, less severe up slope.

Any thoughts?



To: Thean who wrote (7275)2/9/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Alias Shrugged  Respond to of 14427
 
Thean,

Per our good buddy Pissani of CNBC, volume today and yesterday was light. Looks like dumping of tech, but not wholesale selling of market. They are rotating out of tech, but there is no where to go. Who will lead this market? Drugs? Retail? Financials?(yea, right).

What does low volume and big drop indicate. Since 2/1/99, I have had a small position in the Ultra Short OTC Fund (200% short NAZ 100). I had planned on increasing the position if NAS 100 continued up. This is in my IRA; since it is small (about 6% of IRA), I won't cover until we drop quite a bit.

MU - this stock is such a slut.

Mike