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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bgg who wrote (27902)	2/10/1999 12:26:00 AM
From: Mang Cheng	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

< They just won't enjoy the insane growth that can potentially come with the future telco and ISP market. > bgg, you have made the above thesis again and again and again in the last few days. I personally don't think it's really very accurate. By Telco I assume you meant the WAN ATM package switching market. By no means this is a market with explosive growth. Look at the revenue side, if asnd, fore, nn combine their revenues from WAN ATM switching it doesn't exceed $2-3 billion per year. Lu bought asnd not because of its great growth potential but just trying to ward off csco end-to-end assult to protect its accounts. Lu still has a void on the LAN switching side to fill. As for ISP, coms has all the hardwares to satisfy the needs for any isps. coms' pathbuilder and TotalControl line of products are well suited for isp needs. When csco said they have 80% of isp's market, I really don't know what they are talking about. Are they talking about routers, or RAS, or lan switches ? On the other hand coms claimed they supplied 8 out of 10 biggest isps. They are talking about totally different products. coms has its own unique stretegy. Only time can tell if they can be successful. 30% drop for a company like coms on its turn-around phase is very common. Mang

To: bgg who wrote (27902)	2/10/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: Tim McGee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

Bgg, While in general these market reports (such as Dell'Oro) are good. They are not foolproof. Where do you think they get the majority of their info? Its from the vendors themselves (regardless of their other sources). I worked for a large computer company when we introduced a product. 1 month after we shipped our product we had a casual conversation with one of these major research companies stating that our shipments amounted to 15% of market volume. A month later we saw a report saying that we had 15% market share. From then on, we quoted the research company stating we had 15% market share. The reality was not even close - we simply had a large short term shipment to fill the channel at product launch. These reports are subjective in some senses when defining markets. CSCO a while back reported increased market share in remote access when they were included unused bundled 'ports' as part of other products. Every company tries to influence these research companies with their own tilt on how the market numbers should look. While in general i think the numbers are close to reality, the do need to be examined.