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To: TPN35 who wrote (8731)2/10/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Arnie Doolittle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
I think there's another interesting angle in the PCS vs. NXTL discussion. Investors have short attention spans and NXTL's story is getting a little shop worn vis a vis PCS which is newly public with a fresh story.

You can look at the huge adds disparity and you should. But when you put arpu numbers and churn rates on those add bones the comparison with NXTL isn't as it first appears.

PCS has some consumer advantages that NXTL isn't likely to duplicate soon: Brand name awareness and 9000 retail outlets. Yes, 9000. What are the chances of NXTL duplicating that? If you want to consider the difficulty in developing a national brand, look at QCOM's challenges in trying to make a name for itself in wireless telephones. It ain't easy out there.

On the other hand, NXTL trumps PCS's pair of twos for the high end market and PCS isn't likely to have a DC answer for 3 years MINIMUM.

Arnie



To: TPN35 who wrote (8731)2/10/1999 11:37:00 PM
From: Satellite Mike  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
TPN35,

I think Arnie's a little upset that the market likes
Sprint PCS more than NXTL already, even though NXTL
is the ONLY digital cellular network that is cash flow
positive. And now that NXTL will be offering internet
hook ups (not only throughout N. American, but wherever
else they put towers), look out. NXTL is smart to
go after high-end users. And if the PCS board's
(vs NXTL's) posters are any indication of the quality
of users, NXTL is destined to rule. But I would never
short PCS. It's undervalued. NXTL and PCS are both
getting ready to impress the hell out of the market.
Both companies will be bigger than ATI was in 1998.
Bill Gates talks about (in his book about the future)
how third world countries won't need to chop down
trees for their telephone systems. NXTL will have
checks, electronic payment coming in from over half
the world's 25 top markets (cities). And by the way,
NXTL has the rights to serve MORE people than ATI,
which is primarily analog in its (partial) U.S.
network and only owns 20% or so of most of its subs.
I hope nobody has shorted ATI.

Mike