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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Nimbus who wrote (7013)2/10/1999 8:31:00 AM
From: Christiaan McDonald  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 21143
 
Tmrent, why don't you just stay on the SEAC site and quit your b.s.
over here. I never go on the SEAC site and post, I have only done
it one time and that was to compliment SEAC. Chris and I were wondering when you were going to pop up, especially since your co
can't seem to announce a working system and CCUR has one with Marcus.

I don't wish SEAC any bad luck, as I've said before, there is plenty
of business for all. If their server is not working, as the grapevine is saying, I sure wish they would get it going because they
are holding us up (if that's the problem, I don't know that for sure,
only the rumors).

Whether CCUR gets 10 mil or not in 99 is of absolutely no consequence.
What matters is that CCUR establish itself as a solid player and then
the market will look out a year in advance and the stock will move
accordingly.
Ken



To: Nimbus who wrote (7013)2/10/1999 9:06:00 AM
From: Goodboy  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 21143
 
You are right TM. Now if you are right, then you should not be a stockholder in this company. MSFT, Sun, Oracle, SGI, etc. will be the real players in VOD over the next few years. Silly ego filled fools like me started buying CCUR at $1.50 on a ridiclulous dream that they would one day be a player in VOD against the titans of the server and software industry. What was I smoking?

Maybe you should tell Cablelabs about you theory considering the next generation STB or system architecture is not being designed to fit your streaming to storage example. I have dealt with this issue and spoken with the people who DESIGN the damn networks and they don't plan on doing what you have refered to.

Why don't you take Bandwidth 101 offered at the school of Cable Plant Upgrading in Denver. Bandwidth is very scarce. The fatter the pipe, the more services and content and speed will be demanded. The CCUR VOD streaming paradigm is far less Bandwidth hogging then pumping in a 2 hour Mpeg movie to the Set top in 14 minutes. That bandwidth coulb be used and will be used for IP telephony, video conferencing, live data feeds, interactive programming and overall internet access. Not to mentions HDTV signals that are bandwidth hogging ane will be must carry in the next few years.

What about cost? $50 dollars in storage per box. What a bargain. Let me grab the phone and call Paul Allen and tell him the news. Hey Paul, you can save big bucks on VOD! Just tell SFA to put in $50 more in storage and you can buy a Sun server to run your interactive programming cheaper than that "lowest cost per stream" Mediahawk that is so uncapable of anything other than VOD (this is me being sarcastic if you don't get that, our server can do lots of things "can you say Unix").

So lets see, 50,000 homes in a head end system. 50,000 set top boxes times and exrtra $50 for storage. A mere additional cost of $2.5 million for my system. Can a Sun server be so cheap as to overcome this price difference. THE ANSWER IS NO!!!! In fact, $25 in extra storage would still not swing the balance in favor of a general server. The great thing about spending the money on the server rather than the set top box is that you don't spend money for nothing. If we only end up with a 20 percent penetration rate at any given time. I just put $50 worth of storage into 40,000 boxes that didn't need it. Waste, stupidity and flat out bad economics. PERIOD!

TM, spend some time reading White Papers from SFA, GIC and Cablelabs to understand the logic behind having multiple servers for billing and monitoring, system funcitionality hosts and applications servers (A CCUR server will be one of them). Are you smarter than Cablelabs or the guys from SFA? I don't think so. Watch your ego!

Do the movies companies feel comfortable with a digital master at the head end or streaming into storage in the STB where someone can break the encryption and have a digital master? I have asked and I know the answer. Bandwidth is money. That is the whole issue with AOL and other ISP's trying to get access to the expensive high bandwidth cable pipe on the same terms (access fee) as they do the telco systems. This is a key issue. Cables will defend it with all thier power and all their technology. That is good for us.

DIVA, DIVA, DIVA, DIVA! Will you ever shut up about Diva? They are not our competitor except on the level of SFA/CCUR model (build and buy your own and get 100% of the revenue) versus DIVA (they build, you buy only the STB and get 60 percent of the revenue). Corky stated and Kagan and others have affirmed the top MSO's aren't interested in that DIVA model. The small operators and some mid size operators are interested. I wish them luck in Europe. As for any major operator in Europe that finds they don't have the cash to build, my advice would be to call a guy named Bill in Washington state and ask for $1 billion (as we know, Bill just handed out $500 million for equity in NTL).

Diva built their system and network from scratch. I appluad them. However, who gives a rats ass. SFA builds two way interactive systems and they have installed over 35 of them and will have over 80 by March. They have 100's of millions in R&D along with real field trials with many MSO's including Time Warner (can you say Full Service Network). CCUR and SEAC for that matter have simply walked into a systems integrator and plugged in their server. They didn't have to build from scratch, just integrate and stream. I feel bad that it took Diva 30 months to figure out how to do what SFA does for a business every day, but it is not my problem. Again, I wish them luck.

My last point would be this. Do you really think the only VOD servers CCUR will sell this year will be to residential VOD? Do you really think that with Digital systems and set top boxes being deployed in mass from now until year end that analysts won't figure out how much money will be spent on servers versus the market cap of the companies that are now in the drivers seat (that is a little plug for the SEAC shareholders, sometimes a rising tide takes up all ships)? Don't answer me. Just sell your stock and buy into the companies that you think will control VOD. I know that I can't be right on everything nor will anyone on this board or even in the cable industry for that matter. I just have a lot of confidence it my research and understanding of the issues. Some of them may be wrong. I may be optimistic about timing of revenues or roll outs. I don't think that will hold back CCUR stock.

Markets discount future earnings and growth rates. Internut stocks don't trade where they trade because of their earnings. The analysts look and see how they have changed the paradigm of retailing and advertising. They estimate how many billions in sales will flow through the internet or millions in ad reveunues through portals. From this they have assigned stupid valuations. We have an $200 million dollar market cap company (formerly $250 million) WITH EARNINGS that is in a top 3 position in a $10 billion dollar market segment (not including the other non residential markets). When that starts to get built into the stock price, things could get stupid.

My ego and I will stay put here in CCUR and watch the lower lows and the higher highs.