Reputed chipset delay could water down Rambus launch
By Mark Hachman
Electronic Buyers' News
(02/09/99, 09:42:32 PM EDT)
Intel Corp. chipsets supporting the new 800 MHz DRAM interface developed by Rambus Inc. will be delayed until at least the third quarter, according to a prominent Wall Street analyst.
Mark Edelstone, an analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter in San Francisco has issued a report in which he stated that a version of the Intel 820 or "Camino” chipset had suffered "upwards of a three-month delay” from the scheduled introduction date in June. Among other features, the Intel 820 is the first to include an interface to Direct Rambus DRAM, the memory standard promoted by Mountain View, Calif.-based chip designer Rambus.
According to Edelstone, two versions of the 820 will be produced: the first will include an interface to 600 MHz Direct RDRAM and will ship in June as originally planned. The second, designed to connect to the higher-performance 800-MHz Direct RDRAM, will be delayed because DRAM vendors have had difficulty manufacturing the higher-speed parts.
Intel and Rambus disputed Edelstone's interpretation of events, saying that a 600-MHz speed grade had always been factored into the Direct RDRAM launch as a "down bin," a term that refers to parts that are unable to meet the more rigorous 800-MHz timing requirements.
According to Intel's road map, the company intends to replace the SDRAM memory used in most of today's PCs with Direct RDRAM, which can transfer data at up to 1.6 Gbytes/s, or more than twice the speed of today's 100 MHz SDRAM. As an additional endorsement, Rambus had previously granted Intel warrants, or options, to purchase Rambus' stock provided DRAM makers meet certain production milestones.
But word of delays in the Intel 820 chipset launch have surfaced for at least two weeks. Since the first week in January, Rambus' stock has declined from a high of about 110 to 72 7/32, where it closed Tuesday afternoon.
The problem, according to analysts and DRAM module suppliers, is that the 600 MHz Direct RDRAM was originally conceived as an engineering prototype only, and not as a full-fledged production part. Executives at Rambus denied this, calling the slower version part of the company's original production roadmap. "Not everyone will need off-the-wall performance," said Subodh Toprani, vice president and general manager of Rambus' logic products division.
Intel agreed. "600 MHz is nothing new," said a spokesman for the Santa Clara, Calif. company. "It's been in the plans all along." From Intel's perspective, 600-MHz Direct RDRAM is what it calls a "down bin", a safety net in case DRAM manufacturers can't produce enough higher-speed 800 MHz parts.
Intel declined to comment on the status of the 820 chipset, or to disclose its shipping date or features. "Intel will deliver on its promise to deliver Direct Rambus DRAM in 1999," the spokesman said.
At least one analyst who tracks the developing Rambus market disagreed sharply that the downgraded Direct RDRAM parts were ever intended for volume consumption. "I haven't had a single OEM call me and ask what the production schedule is for 600 MHz Direct RDRAM," said Sherry Garber, analyst at Semico Research Corp., Phoenix. Garber called the idea of a 600-MHz Direct RDRAM part, whose price premium may twice that of SDRAM, "flat wrong."
An executive at one memory module maker, which buys DRAM and mounts it on circuit boards for use in PCs, was also under the impression that the 600-MHz Direct RDRAM was originally intended as a test part. "To the best of my knowledge, it's just a prototype," said Bill Johnston, vice president of strategic memory marketing at Smart Modular Technologies, Fremont, Calif. "However, DRAM vendors have had a hard time manufacturing parts at 800 MHz." DRAM vendors have had better luck producing Direct RDRAM parts at 600 MHz and even 400 MHz, Johnston said.
Asian DRAM manufacturers, already strapped for cash in the wake of the Asian financial crisis, have had difficulty committing to, testing, and producing Direct RDRAM parts, according to industry observers. Intel's $100 million investment in Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and its $500 million stake in Micron Technology Inc., together with more recent discussions with other DRAM manufacturers, were designed to get the Direct RDRAM market moving
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