A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted 9 a.m. EST/6 a.m., PST, 2/10/99
Reputed chip set delay
could slow Rambus launch
By Mark Hachman
Electronic Buyers' News
SAN FRANCISCO -- Intel Corp. chip sets supporting the new
800-megahertz DRAM interface developed by Rambus Inc. will be delayed
until at least the third quarter, according to a prominent Wall Street analyst.
Mark Edelstone, an analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter here, issued a
report in which he stated that a version of the Intel 820 or "Camino" chip set
had suffered "upwards of a three-month delay" from the scheduled
introduction date in June. Among other features, the Intel 820 is the first to
include an interface to Direct Rambus DRAM, the memory standard
promoted by Mountain View, Calif.-based chip designer Rambus.
According to Edelstone, two versions of the 820 will be produced: the first
will include an interface to 600-MHz Direct RDRAM and will ship in June
as originally planned. The second, designed to connect to the
higher-performance 800-MHz Direct RDRAM, will be delayed because
DRAM vendors have had difficulty manufacturing the higher-speed parts.
Intel and Rambus disputed Edelstone's interpretation of events, saying that a
600-MHz speed grade had always been factored into the Direct RDRAM
launch as a "down bin," a term that refers to parts that are unable to meet the
more rigorous 800-MHz timing requirements.
According to Intel's roadmap, the company intends to replace the SDRAM
memory used in most of today's PCs with Direct RDRAM, which can
transfer data at up to 1.6 gigabytes per second, or more than twice the
speed of today's 100-MHz SDRAM. As an additional endorsement,
Rambus had previously granted Intel warrants, or options, to purchase
Rambus' stock--provided DRAM makers meet certain production
milestones.
But word of delays in the Intel 820 chipset launch have surfaced for at least
two weeks. Since the first week in January, Rambus' stock has declined
from a high of about $110 to $72, where it closed Tuesday afternoon.
The problem, according to analysts and DRAM module suppliers, is that the
600-MHz Direct RDRAM was originally conceived as an engineering
prototype only, and not as a full-fledged production part. Executives at
Rambus denied this, calling the slower version part of the company's original
production roadmap. "Not everyone will need off-the-wall performance,"
said Subodh Toprani, vice president and general manager of Rambus' logic
products division.
Intel agreed. "Six hundred megahertz is nothing new," said a spokesman for
the Santa Clara, Calif. company. "It's been in the plans all along." From
Intel's perspective, 600-MHz Direct RDRAM is that "down-bin" safety net
in case DRAM manufacturers can't produce enough higher-speed 800 MHz
parts.
Intel declined to comment on the status of the 820 chipset, or to disclose its
shipping date or features. "Intel will deliver on its promise to deliver Direct
Rambus DRAM in 1999," the spokesman said.
At least one analyst who tracks the developing Rambus market disagreed
sharply that the downgraded Direct RDRAM parts were ever intended for
volume consumption.
"I haven't had a single OEM call me and ask what the production schedule is
for 600-MHz Direct RDRAM," said Sherry Garber, analyst at Semico
Research Corp., in Phoenix. Garber called the idea of a 600-MHz Direct
RDRAM part, whose price premium may be twice that of SDRAM, "flat
wrong."
An executive at one memory module maker, which buys DRAM and
mounts it on circuit boards for use in PCs, was also under the impression
that the 600-MHz Direct RDRAM was originally intended as a test part.
"To the best of my knowledge, it's just a prototype," said Bill Johnston, vice
president of strategic memory marketing at Smart Modular Technologies,
Fremont, Calif. "However, DRAM vendors have had a hard time
manufacturing parts at 800 MHz." DRAM vendors have had better luck
producing Direct RDRAM parts at 600 MHz and even 400 MHz, Johnston
said.
Asian DRAM manufacturers, already strapped for cash in the wake of the
financial crisis there, have had difficulty committing to, testing, and producing
Direct RDRAM parts, according to industry observers. Intel's $100 million
investment in Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and its $500 million stake in
Micron Technology Inc., together with more recent discussions with other
DRAM manufacturers, were designed to get the Direct RDRAM market
moving.
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