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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (96878)	2/10/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176388

Mohan- What an amazing sensible, coherent, and correct (!) assessment of the U.S. economy by Stephen Roach. Great post... BTW- After we get through this little investment burp, I'm sure attetion will turn to Y2K and the "nuclear winter" scenario...because, after all, it will virtually impossible for anyone to argue that 1st and 2nd quarter look to be anything less than EXCELLENT for the hardware manufacturers (especially Dell)... Now, even if some large corporations pull back (hardware spending) in the 2nd half '99, due to Y2K concerns........the following should compensate largely (or fully) for that: (1) Small and medium-size businesses play catch-up, and address Y2K thru (near panic-buying) purchases (2) Companies in international markets (especially Asia), both big and small, (near panic-buy) because Y2K (3) Windows 2000 & other upgrade launching fall '99...Pentium III hitting its prime by fall '99 (4) [And courtesy of Roach] Interest rate cuts from last fall will be kicking in big time...supporting capital spending... (5) Overall recovery in Asia (during 2nd half) Remember too, that growth for Dell (in Q3 '98) was a bit sluggish (by Dell's standards)...so on a comparitive basis, it will be easier for Dell to put up great y-o-y comps than some other quarters in Q3 '99(same holds true for Q1 '99 vs. Q1 '98) It's shaping up to be one great year, IMO. And just think, those fat IT budgets will probably remain in place for 2000 (does anyone ever decrease their IT budget) AND Y2K spending will shrink down to next-to-nothing...Wonder where all that (extra) money is going to be spent...you got...hardware and software....Yowzah!