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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Certech who wrote (27934)	2/10/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

>>For God sakes there is only 18 more days until the end of the quarter. They have a pretty good feel on where the quarter numbers will end up.<< I'm not so sure about that. Also, they could've said that they've made 50% of sales by end of Jan., but since they didn't, it sounds like it's worse. You'd think they could have somehow led analysts expectations better. We don't see any anlaysts coming out and saying hardly a peep. You'd think analysts would at least say that COMS is correctly valued, even if they miss by 5-10cents. But, then again, that would lead them to reduce estimates all across the board for the next year. Whew!!!

To: Certech who wrote (27934)	2/10/1999 3:36:00 PM
From: Joe S Pack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

These are the reasons why this is going down without any word from the management: 1. Eric B. believes in catching analysts when they go left. (Remeber couple of quarters back he said that in a quarterly conference call?). So he wants to prove that those analysts are clueless as usual. Whether that will help the stock price and short-term investors is 40% down question. 2. They really don't know how this quarter numbers will turn out. But the fundamental problem IMHO is, not that they know that they may get the numbers in line, the model that they have. They should smooth out the back-end problem. How to do? Follow the master CSCO. They have mastered the R&D write off to a level that no matter what their sales figures are they can always show 1 cent above expectations. Remember in 1998 alone CSCO bought 13 companies over 4 quarters? They use their stock as a currency and use write off to get the numbers in line? (It does n't matter whether it is morally correct or not, or whether SEC sleeps while fully knowing it is totally irrelevent as for the street is concerned.) That is what is totally missing in 3COM. 3. May be Eric. B is an honest engineer who believes in reality and less hype. This is not what street expects. You should be smart enough to be a glib talker and hypster or one of those street insider. So we are in this 2nd half of the sine wave. Yes it is a good trading stock and that is how those analysts are treating this babe to sleep and ditch whenever needed. I think we are very close to the bottom IMHO. If the general market tanks big time all the bets are off and we may see upper 20s. All the best. -Nat (Still long and green.)