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To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (16963)	2/10/1999 5:24:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

I think ADI last week projected 25%/yr growth. I think LSI's projection is in line with that. Personally, baring China devaluation, I think that is within reason. Same with your earnings projection, except I think yours is low. I tried to do some earnings projections over last X'mas. Should not just take 17% margin as is. 17% is over a certain model, "assuming flat revenues going forward" as per Nov. cc. After that, no more R&D or SG&A (remember "revenues per design doubled last year and project to do the same this year" forecast in Jan. cc?). As such, I look to earnings and thus share price even higher than what you projected. Now wouldn't you like to be wrong this way? <VBG> I can't wait for the end of the year, but looking at this thing go up and down right now is just too much. patrick PS in my experimental projection, I also projected PE at ~25, with earnings as the next 4 Qs going forward. If I remember right, for Q1 '99 (Jan thru Mar, April is another animal, my projections show share price of ~$23 to $27, allowing a +/- 15% price swing off 'norminal').

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (16963)	2/10/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Respond to of 25814

By the way I also tried to project a good exit point and potential 'top' price by: 1. assuming 18 months per processing generation 2. for logic chips, 0.25um mass production about now and 0.18um 18 months after that 3. good times would be recognized by all by end ot the year and thus another round of fund raising, foundation laying, fab building etc. etc. can begin. These new fab constructions will take 2 yrs and another Q or two to get totally ramped. 4. PE at over-exuberant levels is 30. 5. at 0.12 um or when the above new fabs really started to get seriously ramped the oversupply would be here again, earnings would decline, goes to zero in 2 Qs and presto ... It's time to sell!! If I remember right, it was tough to hit $100 per share. But $80 was fully doable in Q1 '01. patrick