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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (1233)2/10/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>  Respond to of 1722
 
Lycos Deal Meets the New Internet Math

By SAUL HANSELL -- February 10, 1999

Events Monday provided further proof that Internet
investors prefer fantasy to reality.

That proof came when Lycos Inc., the Internet portal
service, said it would merge with the electronic
shopping units of USA Networks Inc., including the Home
Shopping Network, Ticketmaster and its partly
independent Ticketmaster Online-Citysearch.

The deal means that Lycos
shareholders will go from owning 100
percent of a company with $75
million in revenue to owning 30
percent of a company with $1.5
billion in 1998 sales. Which is
better? If this were a fourth-grade
math problem, the right answer would
be that having a smaller piece of a
much bigger pie is clearly superior.

But the new Internet math is different.

Shares of Lycos fell 26 percent Monday, to $94.25. That
was a huge drop even on a day when the whole Internet
sector fell. America Online was down 7 percent at
$147.9375, and Yahoo dropped 11 percent, to 140.75.

Indeed, the market was in such a sour mood that news
announcements that would have pumped up stocks in
giddier times were ignored. For example, America Online
said Monday that it had signed up a million new members
in the first five weeks of the year, its fastest
million ever, for a total of 16 million subscribers.

But the even sharper drop in Lycos shares reflected the
deflating of hopes by investors that all or part the
company would be bought at a premium to its already
inflated share price.

The deal essentially was the reverse. Lycos is buying
the assets of USA Networks and Ticketmaster
Online-Citysearch by issuing many more of its own
shares. Indeed, Lycos can be seen as paying a premium
to USA Networks, which is the main reason that USA
Networks' shares increased nearly 10 percent, to
41.625.

But there is a more fundamental issue for Lycos's
investors: even the best reality cannot compete with
fantasy. Suddenly, the stakes in a small, rapidly
growing company with seemingly infinite potential have
become shares in a finite and measurable enterprise.

The new company, which is to
be known as USA Lycos
Interactive Networks, will
have 7,000 employees, 2,900
ticket outlets, and
warehouses stocked with 18,000 items for sale.

Robert J. Davis, the chief executive of Lycos, who will
become the president and chief executive of USA Lycos
Interactive Networks, argued that the stock market
should still value the new enterprise as an Internet
company.

Home shopping, he said, should not be seen as a mature
business but one at the vanguard of electronic
commerce.

"I have the ability to be the dominant portal in the
world but also the dominant E-commerce entity," Davis
said in an interview Monday. Thus, he said, the new
company should be valued the same way as the old one,
at 30 times its projected 1999 revenue. By that
yardstick, the combined company would be worth $45
billion. And the Lycos shareholders would see the value
of their holdings double.

Paul W. Noglows, an analyst with Hambrecht & Quist,
agrees that the new USA/Lycos deserves a high Internet
multiple.

"No matter how you cut this, Lycos is worth more as a
part of this venture than it was last night," he said.
"It's an electronic commerce powerhouse, spanning
television and the Internet."

But investors saw it differently. The value of the new
company, based on the Lycos share price, fell from $22
billion at Monday's close to $16 billion at Monday's.

And David Simons, an analyst with Digital Video
Investments, says that other companies with both
Internet and traditional businesses have not been
accorded such relatively high stock prices. Indeed,
several, including Barnes & Noble, Ziff-Davis and
Creative Computers, have spun out their Internet
activities to create independent stocks with the higher
Internet multiple.

"You are merging an Internet business with a
traditional business," he said. "The question is to
what extent does this hybrid maintain its Internet
valuation?"

This is a question that investors will increasingly
have to grapple with, said David B. Readerman, an
analyst with Thomas Weisel Partners, as Internet
operations are, quite logically, combined with
television and other traditional media and commerce
companies.

The Lycos-USA Networks combination "is based on sound
judgment, even though USA's assets are in lower margin
businesses than Lycos," he said.

"They are saying that there many not be any pure
Internet companies any more without some media
involvement."

Davis of Lycos complained that this talk of lower
valuation was unfair and perverse.

"The value of Internet businesses has been based on the
premise that we will build big, sustainable businesses
with high growth rates and high revenues," he said.
"I've done that now. It doesn't make sense for the
market to say that now that I've done what it asked me
to do, it should punish me."

But then again this is the Internet. It doesn't have to
make sense.

Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company



To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (1233)2/10/1999 10:36:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1722
 
Gabelli Is Set to Take His Mutual Fund Operation Public

MARKET PLACE

By RICHARD A. OPPEL JR. -- February 10, 1999

NEW YORK -- Mario Gabelli plans to take his mutual
fund company public this week after agreeing to cut
his annual pay and to give his public shareholders
first crack at his best investment ideas.

Both conditions allowed him to line up underwriters for
the initial public offering, which is being viewed as
an indicator of investor appetite for asset management
companies. Money management firms have rebounded only
modestly from last summer's selloff, causing several
private ones, including Neuberger & Berman Inc. and
Offitbank, to delay plans for public offerings.

Gabelli, known for astute stock picks, hopes to sell 20
percent, or six million shares, of Gabelli Asset
Management Inc., which is based in Rye, and has $16.3
billion under management. That would leave him with a
controlling stake worth more than $250 million in the
company, which he founded in 1976.

After a disagreement with potential underwriters last
year, Gabelli agreed to cut in half, to 10 percent, his
annual take of the firm's aggregate pretax profits --
which would have amounted to more than $4 million in
the first nine months of 1998. But he will continue to
earn other fees, which have topped $20 million in
recent years, and will get a $50 million payout in
three years.

Gabelli and other executives will also be free to sell
their remaining shares after three years.

In securities filings, the firm says going public will
help it expand its products, recruit top money managers
and perhaps lead to acquisitions. Moreover, the firm
plans to increase its presence in mutual fund
supermarkets and 401(k) plans as well as prepare to
offer mutual fund shares over the Internet.

But some concerns remain whether investors will embrace
a company with a franchise so closely linked to one
person and whether the firm can expand distribution.

"The main issue with the Gabelli organization is its
very ragged and uneven distribution strategy," said
John Rekenthaler, director of research at Morningstar
Inc., the fund trackers in Chicago. The firm has the
potential for strong growth, he said, but it has a
history of "wacky promotional schemes" and a hodgepodge
of funds with and without sales charges. "They've been
run like a cottage industry, a little bit
unprofessionally even, at times," Rekenthaler said.

Unlike most money management firms, Gabelli's company
has thrived, in part, because of its namesake, whose
appearances on television programs and in financial
publications has made him one of the most recognizable
fund managers. "The company is Mario," said Geoff
Bobroff, a fund industry consultant in East Greenwich,
R.I.

To help insure that his public company would get the
benefit of his best ideas, Gabelli reversed himself on
a key issue. When he disclosed plans for a stock
offering last April, the proposal stated that he would
have "no obligation to resolve conflicts in favor of
the company or to refrain from competing with the
company."

Now, Gabelli will generally give the company a first
right of refusal on investment opportunities. The
change was eased, a spokesman said, by a decision to
exclude certain assets, like some hedge funds, from the
new public company.

Assuming the deal comes off at the $16 to $19 a share
expected by the underwriters, Merrill Lynch & Co. and
the Salomon Smith Barney unit of Citigroup, the stock
(symbol GBL) will trade at a discount to that of some
other fund companies. Based on earnings projections by
the underwriters, Gabelli stock would be priced at 13
to 16 times its expected earnings for 1999.

T. Rowe Price Associates trades at 21 times 1999
earnings, and Franklin Resources Inc. at 18. Gabelli's
valuation would be more in line with the 15 at
Federated Investors Inc. and the 14 at Waddell & Reed
Financial, both of whose shares have underperformed
since going public last year.

Rekenthaler of Morningstar said the Gabelli funds had
been good performers recently, paced by their
concentrations in media and telecommunications stocks.

The largest, Gabelli Growth, managed by Howard Ward,
posted a 30.3 percent annualized return for the three
years ended Dec. 31, and received a five-star rating
from Morningstar. The other top-rated fund, Gabelli
Global Interactive Couch Potato, managed by Gabelli,
posted a 27.2 percent annualized return over three
years.

A big determinant of the Gabelli firm's profits will be
how much Gabelli puts in his own pockets.

For starters, he earned portfolio management and
account executive fees of $23 million and $21.3 million
for 1997 and 1996, respectively. A spokesman for
Gabelli said the structure was "not going to change"
and that the compensation structure was the "same as
for everybody else" who managed money in the operation.

Gabelli has cut his incentive payment to 10 percent of
pretax income, from 20 percent last year. He will also
receive a $50 million payout in January 2002, with $3
million in annual interest payments on that deferred
sum.

The firm's total expenses related to Gabelli's
compensation would have topped $30 million out of total
revenue of $105.3 million in 1997.

Linda Killian, who specializes in new issues at
Renaissance Capital in Greenwich, Conn., is
enthusiastic about the offering, even with Gabelli's
hefty pay. "There's something to be said for the fact
that you do want someone of his caliber to be highly
compensated," she said, "because it serves as a great
incentive to produce good results."

Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company