To: Brian Malloy who wrote (97063 ) 3/22/1999 2:30:00 PM From: Brian Malloy Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Well you win some and you lose some. I guess I'll make this an educational post about maintaining Option's sell discipline and buying great companies when their blood is running in the street due to seasonal buying/selling patterns of funds and perceived weakness. DELL options picked up this quarter overall have lost 30%. I closed out my April contracts today. However, this has been more than offset by tremendous gains in AOL, CMGI and NOVL. When I first picked up my APR options in Jan I had a price target to sell them when DELL stock hit $100. Well Dell did do that and it went on to an intraday high of $110 over the ensuing weeks. My big mistake was being greedy. I figured, DELL just might hit $120 by earnings and I did not sell half my position which would have covered my initial investment with a profit of 50% + the remaining shares when sold would simply add to the profit regardless of what happened to the stock. Needles to say we are all familiar with Niles call and the descent of DELL since then. At this point, I think it fair to say that the big money the funds and such continue to sell DELL as they get their first quarter window dressing in order. They will put money into the stocks that have shown upward momentum and that will look good to their customers such as AOL and MSFT. The market is fickle sometimes, it can give to much to a stock or take away too much from a stock. The rest of the week will be tough on DELL. However, expect recovery in APR/MAY baring a general Market seasonal sell off in APR. I'll be moving in for options and LEAPS on DELL in April. The blood is running in the streets on this right now, and so it is a good time to buy. Many that have run off to AOL at this late point in time have missed most of the recent run up in that issue. In six weeks they will be saying I sold my DELL to buy AOL. Now AOL has not moved or is down and my DELL is up 50%. If the next earning's report is good, as I expect it to be, AOL will be at $60. I remember the big AOL sell off in '97 when customers were getting busy signals. The stock sold off like crazy reaching $25 or so. Needless to say, we see where AOL is today some three stock splits later. I also remember CSCO, I think it was '97 also. They were accused of having a "slow-down" and it was thought that Ascend and 3COM and Bay Networks were going to take market share. CSCO sold off big time from the 70'S before hitting an intraday low of $38. Now some two splits later you know its price. I can say the same things for MSFT and the start of the DOJ case from a low of $81 to $173 today or the INTC sell off last year or the Applied Materials sell off. Bottom line, the smart money will quietly be accumulating shares of DELL that the clueless give to them. Regards to all, keep cool and people will look back at this period and say what a great time to have purchased DELL.