To: JBird77777 who wrote (97093 ) 2/11/1999 1:22:00 AM From: Sig Respond to of 176387
Re Dell Leap gains:<<< I think these are largely attributable to the very large % gains in Dell stock price over the last several months and the probable corresponding increase in the implied volatility of Dell, which increases option prices.>>> To explain a bit, I play most options months in advance instead of trading them. I.E., have already bought Mar, May, Aug calls and Leaps. IMO it is critically important to have a stock like Dell to achieve big gains. I've tried calls on stocks like Intc, Msft, etc which seem to make good upward progress but the typical gains were much less, more like a double excepting when lucky enough to buy on a dip. Or perhaps just hold for a day or so, which I seldom do. Leaps on Msft have been good, just have to hold them twice as long as the Dells. Gains in Dell calls and leaps should be available for some time to come. During the three years 1994 thru 1996, Dell appreciated 1000% And of course it seemed this progress, as reported by the highly trained street analysts, could not be sustained... Because the growth rate would drop, the PC industry would decay, the prices of computers were dropping, the competition was like a war, computers were becoming a commodity,etc, etc. So what did Dell do???? From 3 years of 1996 thru 1998, Dell appreciated 5000%. And all the same arguments are now being brought out and polished and published. Dell will become just another of the major PC mfgrs with a 30 % growth rate. IMO thats WRONG. Three years a very long time, my guess would be 800% MIN. But we don't need that, 400% total would do great. A 2001 Leap would appreciate $100/shr or more. Go Dell---------------------> Sig