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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pruguy who wrote (25374)	2/11/1999 12:42:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

>>At the GS conference it was noted that 50% of those surveyed intended to buy nt2000....I presume this survey was of large companies...>> At this stage in the game, the glass is half full. If you know anything the complete turnaround and amazing technology edge they have right now - this has incredibly bullish implications for Novell longer term. 50% is a whallopping hedge-your-bet number. It tells me that half the world is looking beyond Microsoft for their enterprise solutions going forward. I expect this number to steadily decline as the days and months go on as the world shift into high gear - in internet-time - for server-centric apps to solve their problems. I really could care less about my fat PC. The world is fast getting the same message. Bandwidth rules......

To: Pruguy who wrote (25374)	2/11/1999 1:58:00 AM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

At the GS conference it was noted that 50% of those surveyed intended to buy nt2000....I presume this survey was of large companies....assuming this is the case, then chatter aside,,,,,what will make novell go up if everyone is buyint nt Math: Percent of those surveyed who intend to buy Windows 2000: 50 Percent of those surveyed who will buy Windows 2000 in the next year: 0 Windows 2000 is not out and won't be out for at least a year, probably two years. Meanwhile, Novell's NDS works with Windows NT 4.0. Simply put, Novell has no competition for at least a year, probably more. Personally, I think the situation is even worse for Windows 2000. My reading of the past week's stories out of Redmond is that they're going to have to toss major pieces of code. My guess is 2002 before they have all the functionality they promised a year ago.

To: Pruguy who wrote (25374)	2/11/1999 9:27:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Pruguy, There is one major point that your statistic is missing. The survey asks "how many of those surveyed intended to buy Windows2000?". Nowhere in that question did it state that they would ONLY buy Windows2000 and completely stop purchasing any other OS. With that being said, I would bet that well over 50% of that initial 50% of those surveyed will also be purchasing NetWare5 and NDS. So your statistic is not one that would worry a NOVL investor. Just last Friday I was called into a strategic architectural meeting with the lead technical architects of a major Canadian Insurance/Investment conglomerate. They have made some VERY VERY strong (to the point of blind bias in the past) commitments to MSFT-everything technology. But in our discussions, they are convinced that NDS is the only Directory Service in the market. They will actually be piloting NDS this year to potentially take advantage of NDSforNT. This alone will remove a major limitation of Domains (multiple domains and the disasters of Trust Relationships). They are also looking at upgrading their remaining NetWare 4.11 servers to NetWare5 to take advantage of pure IP and the mounting of 50GB+ volumes via NSS. This customer is a good indication that the MSFT message of please wait for us to get out NT5 and Active Directory is wearing very thin with the large corporate customer. There are mature solutions out there to be used now, why should they wait for their competitors to take advantage of these technologies while they sit and wait for MSFT to develop and mature theirs in the next 3-5 years. That is why I think MSFT is entering a very rough few years and NOVL has a TON of potential. Toy

To: Pruguy who wrote (25374)	2/11/1999 9:40:00 AM
From: PJ Strifas	Respond to of 42771

Hello! 50% buying NT2K is not an alarming statistic when you consider that NT is a very good apps server and in most cases, companies are buying NT to coexist with NetWare networks. That's why NDS4NT is such a big advantage for Novell. Also I'm assuming that by saying they are buying NT2k they are referring to the server software and not the workstation version. Until you've worked in an environment with NDS, you really can't appreciate what it can do for you. And I'm not just talking about network admins either. Just the other day we deployed 4 new HP printers, pushed the printer drivers out with ZEN. Not one help desk call. Heck, people didn't even know they were printing to new printers! :) Peter Strifas