To: prolific who wrote (2256 ) 2/11/1999 1:37:00 PM From: michael r potter Read Replies (2) | Respond to
It is still early but...Is the good news is built in?. Already that question is being asked on the Yahoo thread with a tinge of surprise and disappointment. The next step is to say it's OK, because ICG is coming and all will be well. I understand that ICG hopes to raise $100-$150M. Let's say, they up the offering to 200M and it starts trading at a triple, that would be a market cap of $600M., and SFE still owns 26% [possibly less if dillution], then ICG would add $156 M or $5 to SFE. As stated previously SFE has added around $17 since the first of the year. App. $5 of that was from NAV and much of the other $12 was due to VERT in Feb. and to some extent recognition of their potential with ICG. Unless I'm missing something, the market has over discounted VERT and much of ICG which will be coming later, in a market environment that one can not be sure will be so enamored of internet IPOs. I took today as a gift, and exited latest trading position. Any further rise from here, is on shaky ground, and would be considered a second and unexpected gift. As a long term holder with a core position, there will be a time, when SFE is worth much more than $42. This whole VERT/ICG thing has changed the equation, in that it has brought more publicity and recognition to SFE than they have ever had. Word will continue to spread and new buyers will enter the picture creating favorable demand, but in the short run, there could be a post VERT hangover. If there is not a pullback into the upper $30s, even I will have underestimated the extent of new era thinking regarding SFE. Best of luck, Mike
