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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kerry Lee who wrote (20718)	2/11/1999 12:30:00 PM
From: Fang Li	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

Kerry, Do you recall the company names of these people who asked questions in CC? It appears to me that there were some new interests. Morgan Keegan did very good reports for Emulex and Qlogic three or four months back. I only found them yesterday. How can we find these kind of reports earlier?

To: Kerry Lee who wrote (20718)	2/11/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: Neil S	Respond to of 29386

<<Therefore, I think if one assumes a 100% mark-up ( 50% gross margin )by the OEM, then one can take the Dataquest numbers and divide by 2 to arrive at sales dollars for the manufacturers (ie, Ancor, Brocade, Emulex, Vixel, Gadzoox,etc..)>> This is incorrect. The numbers in the Dataquest forecast are not end-user prices; it's the price charged by the hub/switch/etc. vendor, and therefore represents revenues to those vendors. I have confirmed this with the Editor as it was not originally clear to me. Therefore, when estimating revenues you can use estimated market share % times the unfactored Dataquest numbers. Taken in conjunction with Ken's IDC reference "$1.6 Billion by 2002 @ End User Prices" when factored [by .50 OEM markup] would establish an analysts range of ~ $800m to $982m in year 2002. This would represent an approximate 100% CAGR for the Switched Fibre Channel market 1998-2002 and would represent the fastest growing segment of the SAN Componet market per Dataquest. Neil