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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (42948)	2/11/1999 5:12:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Skeeter, It sounds more like somebody in that firm is a lurker on this thread or ....maybe....even a participant here under some pseudo name.<G> Well...it doesn't sound like the market is listening to him anyway, nor has listened to him since he first initiated his sell...sooooo....my guess is he is really getting fried from probably being short this stock.<vbg> DavidG

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (42948)	2/11/1999 7:17:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 53903

Skeeter, how dare Needham/LaFountain use real numbers! <g> He's absolutely right that the market share figures being bandied about are ridiculous. I had their share of $ volume at 10.01%, but my mistake was including the total mem revs., which also includes their SRAM and flash. You know what's insane? If MU increases it's market share 5 percentage pts. by the end of their FY, by my numbers they'd still be 3 pts. below what the combined MU and TI assets were doing as of last September. Here: S-97 O-97 N-97 D-97 J-98 F-98 M-98 A-98 M-98 J-98 J-98 A-98 S-98 O-98 N-98 (1)DRAM global $ sales volume monthly (bil.) $1.90 $1.61 $1.48 $1.33 $1.22 $1.17 $1.12 $1.04 $0.87 $0.94 $0.95 $1.06 $1.24 $1.34 $1.51 month cummulative. total (bil.) $4.99 $4.42 $4.03 $3.72 $3.51 $3.33 $3.03 $2.85 $2.76 $2.95 $3.25 $3.64 $4.09 (2)MU quarterly mem. Revs. (mil.) $440.10 $283.40 $290.20 $372.20 $409.50 MU market share ($) sales volume 8.82% 7.62% 9.58% 12.62% 10.01% (3)TXN quarterly mem revs. (mil.) $177.00 $202.00 TXN market share ($) sales volume 6.21% 6.22% SOURCES: (1) SIA figures published by EBN (2) MU SEC filings (3) TXN SEC filings [Both MU and TXN figures include non-DRAM memory revs.] So just looking at MU alone, they actually lost market share last Q. Their ops. went from 12.62% to 10.01% of worldwide dollar sales. However, they had 2 months of the TI ops. Those ops. represented 6.22% of worldwide dollar sales the previous quarter. So if you go back to the above, you'll see that at the time of the TI deal, the MU and TI assets were responsible for producing approximately 18.84% of worldwide DRAM sales. Suddenly, MU + 2 months of TI assets = <10%? OR If we rework the equation... 12.62% + 6.22% (end of Sept. '98) = <10% (beginning of Dec. '98)? Even if you adjust it for the difference between production and shipments last quarter, there's still a dramatic drop-off. Part of that may be explained by whatever they're doing upgrading the TI assets. Another part is whatever "production constraints" MU alluded to in their recent 10-Q. But still, what was happening last quarter? So, if they increase their market share 5%, from their present <10%, that would put them at about 15%, which would be lower than 18.84% MU may be talking production, but in the above I'm focusing on sales because sales don't stand up in front of a room of money managers and make a pitch. They're numbers based in fact (delayed fact, but fact nevertheless). I mean, in theory I presently hold 100% of the market share in terms of anticipated production capacity for Tom Kurlak Action Figures AND Kip Bedard Power Bars <g> Good trading, Tom