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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (6129)	2/12/1999 4:09:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

BB, >>Maybe 2/1 was the end of wave 3 I was pondering the same thing. The Dow broke the upper bound of a descending wedge (bullish), and most of the charts (esp. NYSE composite)look like an enlarged version of the 11/23 - 12/15 correction. >>Might be time to get thermonuclear on the upside -g- Not so. Examine the NYSE composite chart where the wave pattern is the clearest- Wave 1 from the October lows ended 11/27, wave 2 ended 12/14, wave 3 (or was it 1 of 3?) ended 1/8, and wave 4 presumably ended 2/10. But wave 3 is smaller then wave 1 (unless it's 1 of 3) and wave 4 is overlapping wave 2, so I would expect wave 5 to be smaller then wave 3 in span and duration and reach only marginally new highs. And even so I would be extremely cautious because you know some very respectable EWavers are calling the July - October drop A and the October- January rally B, and the B might have only an abc pattern. The only read that support a strong medium term rally is the one saying we've just started the 3 of 3 up from the October lows. To believe the marginal new highs scenario I would require the following conditions : 1. NDX back above the broken lower channel line (2085 Friday, 2100 Tuesday), preferably trading one complete session above it. 2. NYSE composite breaking the descending wedge upper line (596.3 Friday, 595.7 Tuesday) The 3 of 3 scenario is harder for me to swallow. Just too mind boggling. IMO DELL earnings could have the same effect on the market as CSCO earnings. >>today's action makes all the chart formations on the indexes and many stocks look like bull flags. I'm confused by yesterday's move. It does change the whole picture, but I'm not ready to declare anything over a new marginal high for the S&P and the NYSE composite (not for the Naz). In a few days we'll have a better picture. ATG