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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: kenneth kountz who wrote (15133)2/11/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: Skiawal  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 21342
 
I really do appreciate Dr. Tech's information (just so disappointed today after it was up all day and ended up crashing though support level of 5 1/2...Afterall I need to blame someone, can't blame my own STUPID self!).

Overall the Dr. has been right more than he has been wrong with his information...Unfortunately, He has Never been right about stock price predictions. What is so dam frustrating is that the news does NOT help the stock price when you and I know it should. If it weren't for Dr. Tech we would be totally clueless since the mgmt never says anything. However, after speaking with MZ the other day he said that is about to change which goes along with what the Dr. said about ML and M25.

It really does come down to March 31...End of Qtr and Fiscal Year. By then the Financing plan and BEL DMT plan will be out (Hopefully the Dr. will be right). It seems that MZ is confident that WSTL can made enough money off of the CPE's and if the order is what we hope it will be from BEL...who better to supply CPE's to then one of the largest RBOC's in the country.

By the way, a lot of you blame Seamans and mgmt for WSTL's failure to date but I see it differently. Years ago WSTL was 100% committed to CAP, it was not their fault that DMT was chosen to be the industry STD. So they reacted quickly and went to merge with AMTX (which was the right thing to do), unfortunately WSTL doesn't have the pockets that TI does and they lost AMTX to TI BUT NOT without locking up an excellent Preferred Pricing deal with TI for the Chips.

Now lets discuss the promised chips...WSTL was PROMISED delivery of these chips in 1997, then 1998 and now 1999 (yet to be seen). They were also PROMISED all kinds of aggressive ADSL deployment from the RBOC's back in 1997, then 1998 and now 1999 (yet to be seen). If the industry wasn't let to believe that all of this DMT crap would be ready in 97/98 CAP would have been deployed initially and WSTL would have made a BOAT LOAD OF $$$$!!!!

Now WSTL faces ridiculous price competition from ALA which they obviously canNOT compete with (nor can PAIR or ORCTF and CISCO has a shitty DSLAM and LU is still sleeping) and they know this, so they go after CPE business and quality DSLAM contracts (unfortunely small but profitable) and will get more than enough orders once ADSL is really deployed (large scale).

To this day, I still believe that Seamans was PROMISED chips (from TI/MOT) and deployments/contracts from the RBOC's which unfortunately has yet to be delivered...IMHO it was not his fault that he made those promises to us only to be let down.

Not WSTL mgmt's fault...Not Dr. Tech's fault...BUT IT IS EASY TO BLAME THEM...as I often do...IT IS JUST SO DAM FRUSTRATING SEEING ALL THESE INTERNET STOCKS FLY WHEN THEY SOLEY DEPEND ON FASTER INTERNET SPEED ACCESS which WSTL happens to be able to provide!

Tomorrow is another day one less day until March 31! This has been worse than Chinese water torture!


As Trey is will to go down with the ship...at this point what other choice is there but to wait and see.



To: kenneth kountz who wrote (15133)2/11/1999 9:07:00 PM
From: Mad Bomber  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 21342
 
[Dr. Tech]

I would hardly say Dr. is departed. He last posted Feb. 6. Sometimes, he doesn't post for weeks. He seems to usually post late at night. I agree with previous poster. Dr. Tech, in my opinion, really seems to have insight and some close to the source information on Westell happenings. I have looked over all of his postings on SI and the only ones that seem to be way off are his stock price predictions. Granted, all of them have not been publicized, but I would not be surprised if some of the info. has been kept under wraps. I think he underestimates the human psychology involved with this stock. There are probably a lot of so called "professionals" out there who have taken some really ugly losses on this stock the past couple of years. I think "GREED" would get them piling back in. I even think everyone would pile back in before profits happen, BUT Westell is SOOOO tight lipped with info! No one outside of the inner sanctum seems to know what is going on. I stiiiillll believe we could see a real explosion of info in the next month or two. Also, things could change rapidly when true wide scale interoperability happens. TI is wild card in the equation. Here are some thoughts:

1. TI / ALA / ADI interoperability. Maybe Fujitsu as well. I think that covers most chips used in ADSL today. Consider Westell's position. They have integrated TI(partner) and ADI, soon ALA, and wouldn't be surprised Fujitsu at GTE. ORCTF spoke on last CC about how easily they can change chip to operate with other vendors and are being forced to by customers.

2. BT: BT seems to be splitting their project down the middle ALA and FTEL. FTEL, at least in the trials was using both Westell DSLAM's and CPE. ALA could use Westell once chips are interop (prob. not but who knows)

3. Lucent 5ESS and SLC2000 and SLC 5. From what I can tell, it seems that in order to get ADSL in SLC2000 and 5, that the CO equip. needs to be either 5ESS or WSTL standalone DSLAM. Lucent has millions of lines covered by 5ESS and SLC's.

Note: Ski says no one is interested but refuses to divulge any info. as to the basis of his statement via private messages, e-mail, or on the board. Please own up!!!

4. DSC Litespan: between Litespan and Lucent, DLC market really covered. Probably means WSTL will at least get BEL CPE. Hey, not DSLAMs but when you are looking for economies of scale, this will probably be it. They may make small profit, but so what. BEL is early mover on this tech. Westell can really establish "BRAND" through them and get better economies than anyone else.

5. ALA/ LU / WSTL combo at other RBOCS like SBC and Bell South. ALA has probably been picking off all the "easy" lines at these places close to the CO. WSTL could pick up significant DLC business.

Sorry for length. OF course:

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All my opinion and not investment advice.
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HA HA

Everyone lighten up. Money comes and goes and means nothing when you are dead and in heaven.

MB