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Technology Stocks : Etec Systems moving up -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (1164)	2/11/1999 9:07:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1279

I did listen to PLAB, but not DPMI. I posted my immediate thoughts on the thread. As I recall now, about 80% of the business was still above .25µ, and was very price competitive. They were expecting a faster ramp to .25µ than they actually got, so I believe that again they had sufficient capacity. They were buying ETEC machines for production work at .25µ and below, but were also experimenting with machines from UTEK and LEICA which they believed might have certain advantages on some masks. I suspect they are also trying to keep ETEC honest. As I recall, MASK had an ETEC machine on order for delivery this quarter for production work at .25µ as well. There are also captive shops that may need production capacity at .25µ. In my opinion, for ETEC to avoid a blip in sales, we need a rapid escalation in the switch to .25µ and below. Otherwise the mask makers will slow down their capital expansion program. The rule is that when the semis catch cold the equipment makers get the flu. Applying that rule here, when the mask makers catch a cold, the mask equipment makers will get the flu. The mask makers currently have a cold. ETEC has thus far dodged the flu because of the need for equipment capable of production at .18µ to .25µ. But once the initial rounds of equipment are in place, the demand for equipment will slow unless the placed equipment is being fully utilized. I think ETEC management has a very good handle on the industry, and on the future need for equipment. Contrast that to the management of UTEK which has made some wildly optimistic predictions about the level of future demand. Carl