Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (25422)	2/12/1999 7:19:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Respond to of 42771

Wall Street's Virtual Masquerade..... >>When the Street figures out that Novell isn't in competition with Microsoft anymore just the way they figured out that SunW wasn't in competition with Intel thanks to a new market called internet infrastructure, then this stock is going through the roof.>> Thanks Paul for that cogent analysis. Now allow me to "go high" and add some fluff. >>An awful lot of disappointed firms that held NOVL through the horrors and were burned by the company in the old days have yet to have those wounds healed. Basically they all see Novell as just another network operating system company in a world in which Microsoft is THE operating system company period.>> BINGO! Wall Street's current state of understanding Novell is still in the out-of-bounds stage. They are incredibly confused as to where it fits, how it should be categorized, where it's going and what business model it's using. To use a metaphor, Wall Street is still examining Novell as if it were a collection of nails - raised, loose and laying around on the floor - that were supposed to be used to permanently seal this company's coffin against the oncoming ravages of the Microsoft NT blitzkrieg. Excuse the reach with these next metaphors, but relative to "internet-time", Wall Street's mindset about Novell is trapped in the role of being modern investment technology archaeologists. They are examining Novell's bones as if it's this BIG corpse left unburied in caves of Vietnam. Think of the incredible fog that surrounds this stock! Just amazing. >>What will change this mentality is when they begin to understand that the internet world is one of specialized servers. So for example most of them have figured out the SunW is doing so well because it sell "web servers" in vast quantities. And that was news to the Street because they thought with Intel and Microsoft as the enemy SUnw was bound to fail. SunW went out and just developed a new market for itself as an internet infrastructure company --- in a place where MSFT and IBM couldn't compete. The street woke up to this when they realized there was an internet market that was different from the market for other computers.>> Concerning Novell, Wall Street is still frozen in a long slumber. They're still dreaming of the Microsoft NT vision. Microsoft's stock price is the answer to their dreams and will keep them frozen for some time to come. >>Now the Street understands SunW a little better. The Street also understands Internet Stocks --- as in look at all that money being made out there on them. They also understand portals, ecommerce, ISP's and various other internet developing markets and the hype that surrounds the real money being made in this internet market off of stocks.>> Yes, they've caught this "new dream" hook line and sinker. But most of the dreams in this initial stage of Wave 2 investments are pipe dreams waiting to land somewhere via growth, buyouts and consolidation before they flame out. >>They also notice that we are usually ahead of them. Who bought internet stocks first? The Street ---nope, the people here? Yes.>> Yahoo! >>The problem is that the Street doesn't understand that Novell isn't a company in competition with Microsoft in the old network operating system market of the early nineties. Novell is a company on the virge of finding and developing the first internet applications that use a technology --- directory services --- formerly thought to only be useful internally to large corporations.>> Corpses, plumbing....nothing more..... >>When the Street finds out that Novell is taking this technology to the internet to enable a new and more secure level of ecommerce and when they look to find Novell's competitors on the internet and find out there aren't any, then they will perhaps understand what Novell is about to do.>> Get off your apps Wall Street! NDS-fired apps will make this picture come alive. >>It is almost like when Apple computers with Visicalc appeared in corporate offices. (Look we can do spreadsheets on the equivalent of a calculator.) With Novell it is look we can do secure ecommerce and we know we are going to get paid on the internet.>> Just imagine the incredible world enterprise energy that's trapped inside all these legacy systems - just waiting, searching, trying to figure out, like so many Gullivers, how to find and embrace these new virtual promised lands. >>Is there a corporation out there that wouldn't want to turn the internet into a vehicle of secure commercial transactions? Novell has the technology and they have it now.>> Yes, BUT..... There's still so much confusion - Microsoft, Sun, IBM and others have been masquerading at the same dance with so many changing partners of the same, opposite and new types of sex identities. Lights, lasars, smoke, music, fireworks, jugglers, circus acts. Fantastic displays of arrogance, humility and confusion all wrapped up in this giant bizarre gathering. Can you blame the poor average Joe analyst for being confused? >>Moreover with Digital Me, Novell has the technology to give every potential customer of every business a real digital identity --- one that is as good as that customer's bank account balance at the moment of the ecommerce transaction. (No more credit apps! and hoping to get paid. No more floating your customers with 30 days of credit. And no more worrying about whether to ship that $1000 item to some address based upon some data someone entered into your system from out there in cyberspace. now you know the person is real.)>> And this my friend IS the consumer-eyeball killer app we've all been waiting for. But wasn't Microsoft supposed to steal this thunder with this humble gem? What's going on here? >>When the Street figures out that Novell isn't in competition with Microsoft anymore just the way they figured out that SunW wasn't in competition with Intel thanks to a new market called internet infrastructure, then this stock is going through the roof.>> We still have a lot of blathering confusion ahead for the NDS story is still in its infancy. Novell is the next massive internet investment rocket. I say...."TO THE MOON" my friend! Paul, I love it when polling opposites (me vs. you - in character, sentiment and dynamic) - come together to lock in on the same vision at the same time for all the right reasons. This IS the true value of the Internet - having everyone lay their cards on the same table so ALL can evaluate the logic and reason by each move behind each hand. The Internet has a spiritual dynamic that's founded in this unseen law that affirms...."opening up and sharing leads to value-added growth and understanding". Give and get more. Novell is riding this beam better than any major technology company right now. GO!!

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (25422)	2/12/1999 8:40:00 AM
From: Spartex	Respond to of 42771

Paul-- Very well articulated case on what's going on with Novell and the perception of The Street. Maybe you should become a fund manager for specialized high tech companies! Well, then again, many of us that have been here with Novell post-crash in fall 1997 did pick up on the scent of success that Eric Schmidt was going to carry forward in this extremely dynamic world of networks and related applications. Wow, I was excited last year in February (seeing the recovery phase kick in), but that excitement doesn't even come close to what's going to happen in 1999 with Novell ala "internet time"! Regards, QuadK