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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (25424)	2/12/1999 8:11:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Is Microsoft Treading on Novell's Turf? Let's examine this..... fnews.yahoo.com >>Is Microsoft Treading on Novell's Turf? In mid-January Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT - news) and Banyan Systems (NASDAQ:BNYN - news) announced a global alliance to deliver messaging, enterprise networking, and Internet solutions. Those with tech memories that extend to the pre-Internet days will recall that Banyan was once a formidable competitor to Novell in the Networking software arena.>> If you ask the "experts" Banyan has come great code, but I haven't come across one that expects this to turn into a revival. >>While the fruits of this relationship have yet to bear any tangible fruit, it looks as if Microsoft will soon be treading on Novell's active directory turf. A directory is a tool used by a network administrator to control certain data and functions of a network at the server level as opposed to the PC level.>> I like this - "Novell's active directory turf"???? When did Novell get "active" in its directory? >>Novell has had a virtual lock on the active directory market with its Network Directory Services (NDS) software products.>> This writer is exposing himself as uninformed. "Virtual lock on the ACTIVE DIRECTORY MARKET" implies Microsoft owns this domain. >>Under the terms of the agreement, Banyan will provide tools and services to assist customers that want to migrate to a Windows NT server-based directory. This relationship will likely allow Microsoft to access as many as 8 million "seats". One seat may be defined as one log-on or one individual.>> The key here is MIGRATE.... The King - MS - has no clothes and is admitting to the world as much in this agreement. In a world speeding in "internet time" promises laced with words such as "migrate" reveal this is nothing more than another attempt to shell game the IT/IS world - providing much needed cover to the professionals - CEO's and other higher-ups - that prematurely lashed their futures to the NT-frigate. >>Estelle Stephens, Novell spokesperson said of the deal that "while Microsoft may be getting a foothold in active directory, Novell with NDS has over 40 million seats and a strong market position". Preferred Capital Markets analyst, Joel Achramowicz said of the relationship "that the deal will have no immediate impact on Novell and their position with NDS in the active directory market. By that same token though, it is Novell's to lose".>> Let's turn the tables and examine what more Microsoft could potentially lose in this game. This agreement is a blatant end-around back stab at their Active Directory developer - Cisco. Question: how long will Cisco stand around like so much dead wait as the leaden promise of Windows2000 turns devolves into Windows21stCentury? Competitors are chomping at the bit in a kill or be killed quest to virally lock in new directory-centric infrastructure deals while Cisco remains frozen in the Windows21stCentury gulag. Microsoft stands to lose not only an huge ally in Cisco, but all the other infrastructure giants will use this opportunity to stake out new business relationships that have nothing to do with Microsoft. Compared to where the world is heading - or will be forced to head very soon - the NT train is a virtual dead end. Why? Because Windows can't complete the track - finish the job. We are at this FLUX POINT where the world will be forced to acknowledge the existence of "new tracks" in this massive server-centric virtual space that needs a platform. Novell has the technology....NOW! >>J.P. Morgan analyst, William Epifanio, who rates Microsoft a "buy", thinks that this deal with Banyan is "not an immediate threat to Novell." Ultimately though, he sees Microsoft's expanding presence in active directory, and their access to Banyan's customers as being an issue for which Novell must address.>> William is missing the point. With NDS we are dealing with a massive potential that this will be the server-centric app development platform of choice. This is a "standards race" and the world - especially in this environment - can't wait for Microsoft to get its act together. We're talking about protecting and opening up ALL corporate enterprises to the raw power of the Internet to not only protect underlying investments in branding and marketshare, but in legacy technology that can't be gutted anytime soon. This is a massive arbitrage. New virtual firms taking away marketshare from established companies the world over. And the potential for this trend hasn't reached the "curve in the hockey stick stage" yet. The scramble is on. The world needs a new virtual switchboard on which it can build and expand their investments into virtual space. Again, Novell's NDS delivers this NOW! >>While it is far too early to say for certain, we do not think that this move by Microsoft will stymie what Novell has worked so hard for. Novell has an excellent management team headed by Eric Schmidt, and enormous growth potential.>> True. >>Despite the fact that Novell's share price, along with others in the technology sector have been under pressure over the last several days, we see the company easily generating $0.08 per share, in line with consensus estimates for the first quarter ended January 31, 1999. Results are expected to be released the week of February 22, 1999. Stay tuned. Analyst: Glenn S. Curtis>> We will. Go!

To: EPS who wrote (25424)	2/12/1999 8:18:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Respond to of 42771

Victor... >>Although hard to understand at times I like your prose. I think Fiondella finally seems to understand the concept of long term NOVL investing. Trading this thing for little 1/2 points here and there, as he seems to be have been devoted to, has been just plain wrong for at least one year (as was the gold and cash strategy of yesteryear)..This thing will be BIG and I'm happy that Fiondella will be part of it!>> I'm happy, too. If there's one thing Paul has proven to all of us: he's an incredibly talented and intelligent fighter. I don't think Paul ever was off-board this thing. He, too, saw the massive potential. Perhaps his greatest contribution to us and Novell is his pointed, logical and penetratingly concise analysis of the problems they had to face and overcome to get to where they are today. His contributions have been massive in this area and I really mean that. Forget about "right vs. wrong" on the trading vs. buying and holding. This has more to do with ego than anything else. Paul's ego has now come to peace with this monster and I'm glad for you, us and Novell. >>Good luck with your dreams and Cheers!>> Dreams....that's me.... >>PS I see a post of Paul giving me the right to a few millions. Paul finally got my numbers.. >> Cheers!

To: EPS who wrote (25424)	2/12/1999 9:43:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

"Trading this thing for little 1/2 point here and there, as he seems to has been just plain wrong" What is wrong in this statement is your assumption that you know what I have been doing. When you fill this thread up with your idiotic conclusions about what you think I have been doing you just confuse the other people here who assume you must know what you are talking about. Try six points. This nonsense doesn't add anything to this thread or your credibility.