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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37444)	2/12/1999 11:48:00 AM
From: Howard Frederick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

// but they have got to be concerned about the impact of an extended period of $12 oil on the political stability of a number of foreign governments such as Mexico, Saudi Arabia, etc. An extended period of low oil prices will greatly increase support for Moslem fundamentalism with unpredictable consequences. // I too wouldn't be surprised at all if some nasty political unrest doesn't cause a sudden and fairly dramatic increase in oil prices. It seems as if many of the oil producing regions in the world coincidentally happen to be amongst the most volatile. IMO, oil prices are going higher -- it's just a matter of how long it takes (the million dollar question). We (the world) can do it the easy way, or the hard way.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37444)	2/12/1999 12:11:00 PM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

I hope you're right. The thing about instability due to low prices is that it is completely in the hands of those countries most negatively impacted to correct the situation. If they don't I don't see what anyone else can do. The fundamental differences between now and the 80's, besides what you pointed out, is that we are not sitting on the results of oil boom and 4700 rigs working. The real price of oil is lower, but the source of the over production is much less broad based, almost completely due to OPEC raising their quotas, and cheating beyond that. There is some excess caused by drilling and production based on $21 oil, the marginal wells, but not the huge flood that was there in the 80's. So I think the correction will come much sooner, just don't know when. Plus, we have demand for natural gas giving some support. The biggest unknown is just what is the viable price for the lower price producers? Can they make it at $12, $14. or do they need over $17? No one really knows. There seems to be plenty of production that is less than $5. But, I'd be happy for any relief, from any where. Maybe we can do what J. R. Ewing tried to do in the old Dallas series. He wanted to hire some people to plant a nuclear bomb in Saudi Arabia. Mike from La.