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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (97971)	2/12/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 176387

Great Analysis Gabriel: Thanks for sharing it with the thread. I feel you are right on target with your assessment that DELL will beat estimates by quite a few cents/share. Next Wednesday is when the fun starts! Have a good weekend. -Scott

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (97971)	2/12/1999 1:44:00 PM
From: USRX888	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

You think these bastards could have waited until tuesday and let this play out on its own......they had best be right...otherwise their nothing less than pond scum .........just like all the rest of the scumbags...... 888

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (97971)	2/12/1999 2:52:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Gabriel Dubois Merrill Lynch's opinion on Dell has not changed. Their analyst says that their profit may not come in as high as their initial expectations of 5.6 bill but it will be higher than $5.2 bill he said. Thus he maintains his Q4eps of 0.32. His opinion has not changed it is still 2-1-7 , short term accumulate long term buy. As I read this threads comments about softer PC sales, what we need to remember is that Dell only has 8% of that share. So if Dell is eating other boxmakers' lunch we do not need to worry, TA Gene, given that DELL's expectations have been now reduced to only meeting the consensus estimate of $0.31 I decided to redo my DELL analysis for Q4. Here's what I have; DESKTOPS: Q4 - 1815k units vs 1583k in Q3 - 15.3% sequential growth PORTABLES: Q4 - 406k units vs 352k in Q3 - 14.7% sequential growth SERVERS: Q4 - 69184 units vs 64348 in Q3 - 7.5% sequential growth This data is purchased from IDC who have shown extreme accuracy in their data. The server business is my only concern with 7.5% sequential growth [63%yoy growth] and, if these analysts are correct, may be the reason DELL experiences a lower ASP in this quarter [the servers insufficient growth in relation to the other categories]. Based on this I reduced my ASP from $2400 to $2364 - the same ASP the analysts used. This generates total revenue of $5.416 billionfor Q4. I'm keeping gross profit at 22.54% - the same as Q3. If margins on desktops were lower in Q4 I believe this was probably offset by the higher margins in portables, servers and data storage. I increased Operating Expenses by $53 million to $600 million in keeping with the trend from previous quarters. Income before tax came to $631 million and based on a tax rate of 30% generated Income after tax of $442 million. Based on average weighted shares of 1.371 million [a 10 million reduction from Q3]EPS comes in at $0.32. But hold on, this does not include Data Storage. Let's add in the $300 million in incremental Data Storage for Q4 [IDC reported a total incremental external Data Storage volume of $300 million for Q3 and Q4 combined. However, DELL did not start selling external Data Storage until late in Q3 and January 1999 was not included in the $300 million.Therefore, I'm assuming, at worst, $300 million.] Applying the same net income after tax percentage as the regular PC business we generate an additional $0.018 in eps. This brings the toal EPS to $0.34. I'm sticking with this number - $0.34 - although we could see an EPS as high as $0.36 for Q4 [based on a different way of adding in the Data Storage to the overall business]. I'm confident that DELL's earnings will now surprise the street and we should see a nice spike up on Wednesday morning. Regards, Gabriel

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (97971)	2/12/1999 9:10:00 PM
From: Key West	Respond to of 176387

Gabriel, As usual, a post that is informative and reflects your usual due diligence. I realize the CNBC has to fill a 12 hour day with hype, shock, and the gamut of human emotion. However, I can't help the feeling that Dell was the target of a good old fashioned hatchet job today. Sure, a respected analyst adjusting his revenue numbers 5 days before the much anticipated earnings announcement of one of the highest profile stocks on the Nasdaq is always a good story, but this one was milked a little TOO much. The " IS DELL DONE ? " caption as Faber spoke was not only a little dramatic, but also an insult to the journalistic integrity that CNBC prides itself on. Even if Nile's numbers are right for this quarter, does that truly signal the end of Dell's magnificent run? I doubt any intelligent participant on this thread would believe that, so perhaps CNBC and the moron who writes the captions should stick to reporting the facts, and only the facts, and leave the cheap, pulp fiction drama to the supermarket tabloids. "DELL IS DONE?"....sure..., and "MOTHER THERESA WAS AN ALIEN" The irony in all this is if Dell posts great surprise earnings Tuesday, CNBC will trip all over themselves kissing Michael Dell's a-s Regards, Gene

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (97971)	2/12/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: freeus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

From IBD, Friday Feb 12, 1999 P B3 Article is titled "Best funds are following internet rainbow" (I didnt see this on the ibd ww.) This is an exerpt about DELL "IBD found 95 top funds pouring $1.96 billion into DELL's stock. The stock continues to be the darling of the market, having soared from 6 in 1996 to a peak of 109 1/4 earlier this month. It has a 99 Earnings per share rating from IBD. That means profit growth has been better than 99% of all companies. Dell will report earnings soon for the fiscal year ended Jan 31.They should be up 62% to $1.06 a share, according to estimates compiled by first Call corp, from 64 cents a year ago. Revenues are growing in excess of 50% quarterly. For fiscal 2000, analysts project a 39% gain in net to $1.47 a share. Dell's stock was extended, having broken out of a base on Dec 21 at 72 and running up 32 points. Generally, after a move like that, a stock may base for a while. That's what Dell is starting to do now. The only technical negative for Dell is that insider selling rose sharply the past six months. IBD found 28 sell transactions covering 17 milion shares. There were no buys. Founder Michael Dell sold 8 million shares in December in the mid-60's. He holds 184 million shares. Insiders tend to sell early. Top performing funds at Fidelity and American Century were buyers." Happy Friday evening, to all. Freeus