To: A. Geiche who wrote (37460 ) 2/12/1999 1:29:00 PM From: Mike from La. Respond to
It may that all the OPEC countries are jockeying for position before the meeting by more or less threatening what's going to happen if members insist on cheating or not coming to a new agreement. Chavez certainly can't do it by himself, and has apparently made good on his previous cuts. The fight seems to be shifting to Iran and SA. They may proceed on a course of mutually assured destruction, or not. I hope that they are actually trying to increase pressure for an agreement. the thing to notice is that the battle is being fought through press releases, which could very well have multiple purposes. One one is saying, "we've decided to raise production", or "we're no longer interested in cuts." They keep the door open, while posturing. Normal negotiation techniques. If it scares us, think what its effect is on the countries with crashing economies. The important thing is they keep talking. Think also but the psychological impact if they almost kill the appearance of any hope for OPEC cuts, then announce an agreement for 1-1.5 million in cuts. It's a multi-stage propaganda game, the objective of which is not known. Certainly builds up suspense for the meeting and raises the stakes. I feel like I'm in a poker game where I have too much money in the pot to fold, but calling is very expensive.
