Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Dally who wrote (3946)	2/17/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5676

I have not posted here before, but it was suggested that I repost one of my previous comments here. Hope you dont mind. seeya >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wednesday, Feb 17 1999 7:39AM ET Reply # of 6510 INDEX UPDATE =================================== After these comments I dont think many will want me to post again and definitely I dont think I will be invited to any parties. ggggggggg I have turned extremely negative towards the market for the long term, with about a 5 year time frame or longer. I believe that the overall market will return to a PE range of 15-20, which would mean about about a 33%-50% haircut from the peak. This is not to say that the market could not set another new high before then. My technical analysis is mainly short-term, so my belief for this huge bear market is not based on technicals. Also it is not based on market fundamentals. It is based on social issues worldwide. We hear so much about the new paradigm which permits such high P/E's. Imagine how people felt in England felt when the trading companies were bringing in such riches from worlds which the average person never heard of. Was that a new paradigm before the collapse of the OVERSEAS TRADING CO. Imagine how people felt when the radio was introduced and RCA became a modern mania. Was that a new paradigm before the market collapsed in 1929 and lasted for years. Imagine how the JAPANESE felt when their industries were becoming leaders in the world and were able to overcome many AMERICAN GIANTs. Was that a new paradigm for the JAPANESE before their market started declining from 40,000 in 1989, and has now pulled back about 70% and has not yet recovered. The analyst use the term paradigm to justify continuation of the bull market, but what they forget or dont understand is that a NEW PARADIGM quickly becomes the normal way of thinking until the next NEW PARADIGM. Civilizations began 5000-6000 years ago and there have always been technological advances thru the years. However technological advances have skyrocketed in the last 100-150 years. It took hundred of years to perfect SWORD making and it only took about 60 years from the time the WRIGHT BROS first flew to the time to put a man on the moon. It took hundreds of years to improve the GUN, and it took only about 40-50 years to take the the 1st computer on put into many homes. For thousands of years the average life expectancy of a human was probably under 50-60 years of age or less, and in less than a century the life expectancy of Americans is now approaching 80. We are now in a technological/social bubble. Now the question is how long will will this bubble last before correcting and how will it correct. It is my understanding that major wars have occured about every 50 years. Now some may say that we cannot have anymore world wars due to globalization(another new paradigm), but keep in mind that with all that technological advances it has changed warfare to a NEW PARADIGM itself. Now its almost like someone is behind a JOYSTICK on a computer pulling the trigger to kill many without witnessing the devestation. And with all these technological advances, war can now come to the U.S. mainland more easiliy with biological,chemical,nuclear warfare. My belief is that a major world event will be preceded by world economic problems. The world's YING-YANG is out of balance, and it would probably require a major world event to correct it. I guess no one will invite me to parties anymore. ggggggggg. Hey I really do have a great sense of humor. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<