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To: accountclosed who wrote (19363)	2/12/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Interesting count AR.......I will look at the Nasd count myself ...I saw Bob Pisani mentioning that he had spoken to Peter Eliades around 1 PM...meant to post this last night Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, February 11, 1999. It was quite a day, wasn't it? At first glance, one might think the bulls are going to have their way again and off we go to new all time highs. Hip-hip, hurray, but hold on a second here. Did you happen to notice that there were 104 new 52 week lows today, the highest number since the 109 and 105 that were registered at the December 1998 lows, and before that, today's number was the highest since October 15, one week after the October 8 low. So what, you say? Well, does anyone remember the Meyers Daily Advance-Decline New High, New Low Market System, that was published in the January 1997 issues of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. We have mentioned it several times over the past year or two. It just so happens that the Meyers System gave a sell signal today. Its first sell signal in a long time. It is not a perfect system, by any means, but it has an enviable long term track record and has caught some market tops almost to the day. For example July 18, 1990, the top prior to one of the last significant declines we have had in this decade. You Fibonacci fans out there should notice that at the close today, the S&P futures had an done an almost perfect .618 Fibonacci retracement from the February 1 high to the February 10 low. It is potential reason for the rally to be over already, but we should not be amazed or disappointed if it has further to go. We still cannot rule out a crazy leg to the upside as we have talked about over the past month or so ala, 1929, but today's action, believe it or not, makes us more confident, not less confident that such a move is coming. In other words we believe the probability is a lot lower now than it might have been a week or two ago. This market could get very exciting very soon for us bears. It is hard to believe after a day like today, isn't it? Mutual fund switchers, Rydex switchers are in the Ursa fund. Fidelity Select switchers are in cash. All mutual fund switchers should call each market day after 3:20 p.m. ET and each market evening. Stock Index Futures traders, you were stopped out of the March S&P short position at 1243.00 for a profit of $44.50. Tomorrow, sell short the opening of the futures (that is, of course, the daytime opening session) with a stop at 1276.90. If you are stopped out, you may reshort on a move below 1260.00 with a stop at 1274.90. There are no new projections on bonds or the XAU. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow.

To: accountclosed who wrote (19363)	2/12/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Et tu, Paul? -g- I like Arik and the gang who are obsessed with EW theory. They have a three-step procedure: (1) They will continue to say "we have just completed 1 of c of b of 3 of 4 of 5" yada yada. (2) Come next day they will say, no I got it wrong yesterday this is how it is. (3) Go to step one and execute all three steps again. One of these days they will get it right and will say - "see, I told you so!" -g- It ain't any better than my unorthodox "bird" droppings! -g-