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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (98083)	2/12/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: Grant	Respond to of 176387

(REUTERS) FOCUS-Dell falls on outlooks, tech stocks retreat FOCUS-Dell falls on outlooks, tech stocks retreat (adds details, analyst comment, byline) By Andrew Hay NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Fears that Dell Computer Corp. <DELL.O> would not meet Wall Street's fourth quarter earnings forecasts sent shares of the computer maker sharply lower on Friday and sparked a renewed sell-off of technology stocks. Shares of Dell, the No. 1 direct seller of personal computers, fell more than 10 percent to as low as $91.06 after several big Wall Street brokerages gave edgy outlooks for the company's fourth quarter earnings. The technology-laden Nasdaq composite index was down 73.4 points, more than 3 percent, on the day after it logged its highest one-day point gain ever. BancBoston Robertson Stephens and Salomon Smith Barney issued reports on Dell that fretted over gains in corporate sales by rivals Compaq Computer Corp. <CPQ.N>, Hewlett-Packard Co. <HWP.N> and International Business Machines Corp. <IBM.N>. Prior to the open, Robertson Stephens said Dell's fourth quarter finish was soft, and would lead to revenues of $5.2 billion, shy of its earlier estimate of $5.5 billion. The brokerage house cited competition in the U.S. corporate desktop and large server computer market for the expected shortfall. Robertson Stephens said it expected Dell to meet the consensus fourth quarter earnings estimate of 31 cents per share when it reports fourth quarter numbers on Tuesday after the market closes. Salomon Smith Barney said it saw rivals Compaq, Hewlett-Packard and IBM making progress toward the so-called "Dell model" in the company's key large accounts market. Dell is best known for a sales model that allows customers to cut the cost of a computer by ordering it straight from the factory floor. Salomon said it was "comfortable" with its 31 cents share earnings estimate but did not expect more than "several pennies of upside" on the number. It said given recent competition from Compaq, Hewlett-Packard and IBM it now believes it may have been too optimistic that Dell's computer selling prices would remain firmer. Nevertheless it saw strong margins offsetting any revenue shortfall. Other brokerages contend, however, that overall Dell was doing just fine. Credit Suisse First Boston said Dell was "on track to meet or beat" its fourth quarter earnings estimate of 31 cents per share, and it also said revenues appear to be ahead of its $5.4 billion estimate. Even with heightened corporate competition, Dell is still growing at a much faster clip than its rivals, Warburg Dillon Read LLC analyst Charles Wolf said. Wolf cited figures from industry tracker International Data Corp. (IDC) showing Dell increased unit shipments by 56 percent year over year during December 1998. By comparison, Compaq, the No. 1 personal computer maker, increased its shipments by 17 percent and Hewlett-Packard and IBM by 14 percent each. "It's difficult to believe that the competition has heated up to the point that Dell will report a weaker quarter," Wolf said in a telephone interview. A Dell spokesman said that with fourth quarter earnings less than two working days away the company was unable to comment on Wall Street outlooks or make any other statements that might refer to results. Research company Hoover's ranks Dell the fourth largest personal computer maker while IDC and fellow industry tracker Dataquest both put Dell at No. 3 behind Compaq and IBM in the world market and at No. 2 behind Compaq in the U.S. market. Dell will report fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the market closes. ((New York News Desk 212 859-1721)) REUTERS * end of story *

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (98083)	2/12/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: Crazy Canuck	Respond to of 176387

Greetings from the far North! I have been looking to buy some Dell shares for quite awhile now. It is one to the stocks that I want to have as a core holding for the next ten years. Today, I finally saw an opportunity that I just can't pass up. I find that it is interesting that Dell computer is getting killed today. This is primarily based on two house's expectations that they will not meet earnings expectations. Other houses think that they will meet them. Yet the stock is down $10 today. As I see it, the company has not pre-announced an earnings shortfall. The only concern seems to be the total unit sales may be down, due to more competition. I don't see that. I really think that everyone benefited from an increased demand. Dell has diversified their product line pretty well over the past while as well. This situation could be a real stimulus especially combined with the expectation of the company announcing a split when they come out with their earnings on Tuesday. I see this as very good opportunity to buy some short term options. For example the Dell Feb 20 95 calls are now going for approx. $3 1/2. If they hit or exceed the target, then it will have a rocket strapped to its ass and everyone who sold off today will be trying to get it back into their portfolio again. Come Tuesday the U.S. markets (who may have discounted the news already) and World the world markets (who I don't think have as yet) could be happy that the Clinton Affair is finally over and there will perceived stability again. This has to be good for the market. Over the weekend, people will be re-thinking their portfolio holdings, and will probably be getting out of the fluff stocks and buying quality. IMO Dell is quality, and people will remember to buy stocks that have staying power for the long haul. They will put these in their IRA or RRSP accounts (The RRSP is Canada's version of the IRS). As the value of these options are down $6 in value today alone. The downside is relatively low, however if I'm correct then I MIGHT see over a 100 to 200% return by Wednesday. I could be dead wrong, but if I'm correct I will use my profits to purchase the actual shares. These I will hold onto for 10 to 15 years. Good Luck to all!