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To: Walter Liu who wrote (854)	2/12/1999 6:04:00 PM
From: Patriarch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6531

Merrill Lynch Analyst Kurlak to Join Tiger Management New York, Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the largest U.S. brokerage firm, said semiconductor analyst Tom Kurlak resigned to join the Tiger Management LLC hedge fund, following a year of wrong-way forecasts on the chip industry. Kurlak, who in 20 years at Merrill attracted a following of investors because of accurate predictions on the chip industry, will become managing director in charge of technology investments at Tiger at the end of the month. Kurlak accurately forecast declines in the semiconductor industry in 1997 and early 1998. In August, however, he lowered his rating on No. 1 chipmaker Intel Corp. shares to ''long-term neutral'' and the stock climbed about 45 percent. The former Merrill analyst in November said Advanced Micro Devices Inc. would benefit from higher demand for low-priced computer chips and the company warned last week that the profit would be less than analysts had expected. ''He was a legend in the industry, though recently he lost his edge,'' said analyst Claude Hazan of C.E. Unterberg Towbin. Kurlak's resignation was first reported by CNBC. ''For 20 years, I have been dispensing advice. Now, I look forward to begin to implement it with this new opportunity,'' Kurlak said in a statement from Tiger. He couldn't be reached for further comment. ''Tom Kurlak is one of the most influential analysts on Wall Street, '' said Julian Robertson, chairman of Tiger Management. ''He has had a distinguished career on the sales side and we are thrilled and delighted that he will continue his career with us on the buy side.'' Merrill Lynch said the companies Kurlak covers are under review and no replacement has been named. ''It's the logical next step in his career,'' Merrill spokeswoman Susan McCabe said. ''We wish him well.'' Past Calls Two-thirds of the analysts who cover Intel have favorable ratings, citing rising demand for PCs, most of which are powered by Intel chips. Kurlak turned bearish on the semiconductor industry on Aug. 22, 1997, citing an oversupply of chips. Semiconductor stocks tumbled soon afterward. He warned that inexpensive personal computers requiring cheaper chips would eat into Intel's profit. Since then, Intel stock has climbed as much as 67 percent to a record 143 11/16 on Jan. 20. It fell 6 3/4 to 126 1/2 today. Intel Chief Executive Craig Barrett even poked fun at Merrill's inaccurate calls on his company at an analyst meeting last year, joking that Merrill clients might be wondering why Intel's stock has run up after the analyst, whom he didn't name, had been putting out gloomy forecasts since August. Intel had no comment on today's announcement. In March 1998, Kurlak said chip companies were poised for a ''reality check'' because of weak demand. The very next day, Intel warned that first-quarter earnings would fall short of forecasts because of reduced orders from PC makers. In April, Kurlak cut his rating on Intel to ''long-term accumulate'' from ''long-term buy,'' and was quoted on television saying that the shares could fall as low as $60 from about $75, where they were trading the day he spoke. Intel shares touched a low for the year of 65 21/32 on June 3, less than two months later. ''Tom was important and helpful in his day,'' said portfolio manager Graham Tanaka of Tanaka Capital, which manages about $200 million, ''But he wasn't right all the time.'' On Advanced Micro Devices, Intel's biggest rival, Kurlak raised his rating on the stock in December, after two-thirds of the analysts who cover the company had favorable ratings. He then cut his rating and earnings estimates just last week amid concern that Intel was getting more aggressive on introducing new products and cutting prices. AMD's stock has lost 79 percent of its value since Jan. 11. ''Whether his call was right or wrong, the buy side always paid attention to what Tom Kurlak was thinking and saying,'' said Philip Orlando, chief investment officer at Value Line Asset Management Inc. Kurlak has been more wrong than right lately, said Orlando, who owns shares of Intel. Investors still listened to him, though, because Merrill's 16,000 brokers can promote their analysts' research to clients, making a stock rise or fall. ''You needed to be apprised of what he was thinking to gauge the direction the stock was likely to take,'' Orlando said.