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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (98318)	2/12/1999 6:38:00 PM
From: Venkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

God...I should have known the cats would drag you in<gg>..i am not in a good mood so be cool with the Dell bashing <gg>.Are you still short yahoo<gg>. Even that dumbass on Cnbc said shorting dell was insaine. Its a short trap Paul...The time to short is a couple of days after earnings when we are back in the 110 range..I think Mikey is setting some annalyst and bashers up for a BBQ.

To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (98318)	2/12/1999 7:27:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Paul, there are false assumptions implicit in you analysis. The most obvious is that you have assumed that there will be no value to the company at the end of 10 years other than the return of the initial $100,000 you invested. But let's look at it this way. Suppose you had a slow or 0 growth company, what would you pay for it? Let me wave my ands and say an earnings yield of 10% (providing some risk premium). So what would the company earn in 10 years? 1.50^10= 57.67*.93/.1 = $536.28 per share. Now if a current share is worth $89 that implies an annual appreciation of 19.7% which is certainly better than 5%. The second error you make is that even in your model you have failed to reinvest the cash flows spun off in the interim. For example, the initial cash flow is $0.93 in your model, but this is exactly the future value your model places on the $.93. In fact, if you were to simply invest that at 5% it would be worth $1.44 after 10 years. Either error by itself completely invalidates your conclusion. TTFN, CTC

To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (98318)	2/12/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Dalin	Respond to of 176387

Uh Paul? You didn't do the math right! AEOB D.

To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (98318)	2/12/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: David Tesorero	Respond to of 176387

Paul, How did you get out of 3rd grade?? I think a slow child in 2nd grade could see your logic is wrong and math does not add up!! I am sorry to be an ass, but I am not in a good mood tonight. Dave

To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (98318)	2/12/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: freeus	Respond to of 176387

????????? Paul Dell soared from 6 in 1996 to 109 3/4 earlier this month and even at 89+ today is a 13 bagger. All the holder has to do is sell a share now and then to live on and watch the others appreciate...how you can compare this unfavorable to CD is beyond me. I've had both. I cant believe your post...do you? Freeus

To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (98318)	2/12/1999 10:45:00 PM
From: Ramon Colomina	Respond to of 176387

Paul, I guess you can see from all the responses you're getting that your math is flawed. Your calculation tries to basically value your investment based on what the company would be actually earning for each share you own. But luckily for all of us the market values our holdings at a "multiple" (i.e. the p/e ratio) and you need to take it into account because your return over 10 years will be based on the increase in market valuation. If earnings(e) grow at the rate you mentioned (50% annually) and we assume the "multiple" stays constant then price has to grow in the same exact proportion so your return-on-investment formula would turn out to be (I'm skipping the intermediate steps) 100,000(1.5)^10 = 5,766,504 !!!! You can obviously refine this calculation to account for different starting and ending multiples (100,000/PEstart)(1.5)^10*PEend which in all cases will show you that finding the right stocks is a real gold mine compared to your CDs !! Ramon.