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To: accountclosed who wrote (19493)2/12/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: bill meehan  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 86076
 
I don't want to jinx everyone holding puts/shorts, but I believe the top is in. The following is an excerpt from my comments to clients this morning:

While the market's strength was impressive, one standing outside of the frenzy has to wonder if what's going on is really a sign of health or a symptom of profound sickness?...Perhaps this time the ever-elusive "New Era" is upon us, and a new paradigm dictates different metrics for valuing equity investments. It would seem as if one would have to take that position to be confident that the market's narrow leadership continues to provide attractive investment opportunities. However, given human nature, it's more likely that we are simply witnessing the final throes of yet another speculative mania that will end as they all have through recorded history. It's simply(?) a question of from what level will the game end, and it's a dangerous game that I continue to believe investors should only play with very modest exposure. That hasn't been a winning strategy over the past year or so compared to the "New Nifty 50", but it's made it easier to sleep at night and has provided a better return than the average equity investment. I think it will also outperform the COMP and SPX before too long as a new generation of investors discovers the meaning of risk.