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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (22536)	2/13/1999 9:37:00 AM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Respond to of 77397

Stephen-- "Newbridge has already announced four LMDS victories (including the WIC Connexus contract), while Cisco and its partner, Bosch Telecom Inc. of Richardson, Texas, have yet to proclaim any." " WIC's parent company -- WIC Western International Communications Ltd. -- was taken over bid by Shaw Communications Inc. Shaw officials declined to comment yesterday. But it"s no secret that Shaw is a customer of Cisco and almost certainly would standardize on its equipment. Clearly, the loss of such a contract would be a blow to Newbridge. It was an important early win in a burgeoning industry of advanced wireless systems known as local multipoint distribution systems (LMDS). The U.S. in particular auctioned off dozens of LMDS licences last year and the new owners are trying to figure out what kinds of systems they should install to offer high-capacity wireless phone and data service. In the early stages of this market, it's vital for companies such as Newbridge to establish momentum. The coming weeks should tell the tale of whether the rumored loss of WIC Connexus has affected Newbridge"s chances to doing so. Newbridge has already announced four LMDS victories (including the WIC Connexus contract), while Cisco and its partner, Bosch Telecom Inc. of Richardson, Texas, have yet to proclaim any. However, this will likely change soon. Tom McCabe, the vice-president of product management for Bosch, says his company and Cisco have already been awarded five LMDS contracts, including one each in Europe and Latin America and three in the U.S., but haven"t yet announced them. He also pointed to an coming trade show on Feb. 22 and 23 in San Francisco. "There will be what we believe to be fairly meaningful announcements made there," he said. Northern Telecom Ltd., another major player in the LMDS business, might outdo Cisco. Nortel is a sponsor of that trade show and company officials said yesterday that they have soon-to-be-unveiled commitments from 22 LMDS service providers around the globe. Newbridge, for its part, says it has six unannounced LMDS contracts in the bag, including two each in Europe, Latin America and the U.S. Of course, it's impossible to say on the basis of contract wins alone who's really ahead in the early going because individual deals vary significantly in size. The Kanata firm also has a few weapons at its disposal in trying to preserve its piece of the WIC Connexus contract. For example, the federal regulator -- the Canadian Radio-television & Telecommunications Commission -- could intervene to prevent Shaw, a cable operator, from offering LMDS service. Newbridge also says it has the right to bid on future pieces of the WIC Connexus network. Technical merit does not appear to be an issue. All the major players -- including Newbridge, Cisco and Nortel -- are developing solutions that are constantly evolving. It"s safe to say that none can yet provide everything that service providers like WIC Connexus want but all will eventually get there. Even if Newbridge loses the WIC Connexus business to Cisco, it's not the end of the world, analysts say. Paul Silverstein, an analyst with New York-based BancBoston Robertson Stephens, pointed out yesterday that the potential value of the WIC Connexus contract might be less than advertised because the Toronto-based wireless service provider has been "hindered primarily by financial constraints." The original contract had envisioned a 23-city rollout, but the company has apparently scaled back its plans -- at least for the moment -- to providing service in Toronto and Vancouver. Mr. Silverstein added that Newbridge had been recording minimal revenues from this contract because the rollout had been relatively slow. At the same time, Newbridge's other major LMDS contract -- a $270-million piece of business involving Ottawa-based MaxLink Communications Inc. to be spread over four years -- is much further advanced. It"s also considered secure. "We are very well satisfied with the progress being made with Newbridge," said Joel Bell, the deputy chairman of MaxLink, "We expect to be in the market by mid-year." After the past week, those are comforting words for the wireless engineers at Newbridge. Zbyslaw