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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert miller who wrote (2264)	2/13/1999 9:15:00 PM
From: robert miller	Respond to of 4467

Recent purchases of public companies by SFE. Transactions for: SAFEGUARD SCIENTIFICS Rel Company Ticker # of Shares Trans Type Trans Date(s) Trans Price(s) Total Holdings B/O COMPUCOM SYS INC CMPC 100,000 B 01/25/99 3.72 - 3.75 23,967,881 B/O CHROMAVISION MED SYS INC COM CVSN 150,000 B 01/21/99 7.40 6,058,468 B/O OAO TECH SOLUTIONS INC COM OAOT 12,500 B 01/13/99 - 01/12/99 4.13 - 4.50 5,529,356 B/O USDATA CORP USDC 5,000 B 01/07/99 2.38 6,271,060 B/O CHROMAVISION MED SYS INC COM CVSN 57,400 B 12/31/98 - 12/11/98 4.75 - 5.75 5,908,468 B/O OAO TECH SOLUTIONS INC COM OAOT 35,000 B 12/31/98 - 12/29/98 3.13 - 3.21 4,516,856 B/O USDATA CORP USDC 5,800 B 11/06/98 - 11/04/98 2.81 - 3.06 6,266,060 B/O USDATA CORP USDC 28,100 B 10/20/98 - 10/16/98 1.94 - 2.06 6,260,260 B/O OAO TECH SOLUTIONS INC COM OAOT 15,600 B 10/15/98 - 10/08/98 2.88 - 3.05 4,481,856 B/O DOCUCORP INTL INC COM DOCC 10,000 B 10/15/98 3.06 1,812,609 B/O DIAMOND TECH PART A DTPI 150,000 B 10/02/98 10.13 - 10.94 943,853 B/O USDATA CORP USDC 40,805 B 09/24/98 - 09/01/98 3.19 - 3.75 6,232,160 B/O COMPUCOM SYS INC CMPC 184,000 B 09/24/98 - 09/01/98 4.18 - 4.63 23,630,181 B/O OAO TECH SOLUTIONS INC COM OAOT 30,000 B 09/17/98 - 09/01/98 3.13 - 3.50 4,466,256 B/O OAO TECH SOLUTIONS INC COM OAOT 152,500 B 08/31/98 - 08/03/98 3.69 - 4.75 4,436,256 B/O USDATA CORP USDC 37,100 B 08/31/98 - 08/04/98 3.75 - 4.88 6,191,355 B/O COMPUCOM SYS INC CMPC 25,000 B 08/28/98 4.69 23,446,181 B/O OAO TECH SOLUTIONS INC COM OAOT 200 B 07/31/98 - 07/13/98 4.75 - 4.97 5,283,756 B/O USDATA CORP USDC 28,400 B 07/29/98 - 07/13/98 4.81 - 4.88 6,154,255 B/O OAO TECH SOLUTIONS INC COM OAOT 91,000 B 06/29/98 - 06/05/98 4.69 - 5.25 5,213,756 B/O USDATA CORP USDC 26,500 B 06/25/98 - 06/01/98 5.13 - 5.50 6,125,855 B/O SANCHEZ COMPUTER ASSOCS INC SCAI 25,800 B 06/15/98 - 06/05/98 15.56 - 17.13 3,144,092 B/O CAMBRIDGE TECH PARTNERS CCOM CATP 50,000 S 06/15/98 51.23 8,597,389 B/O USDATA CORP USDC 7,500 B 05/28/98 5.25 - 5.50 6,099,355 B/O bob

To: robert miller who wrote (2264)	2/14/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Respond to of 4467

Bob and InvestorSeer, You are correct, In posts 2257 and 2251 I inferred market cap. assuming the entire shares outstanding would be put on the market and extrapolating from there. This is not the case of course, and that is the reason why VERT has market cap of $714M, somewhat higher than I expected. In one of the posts, $1.5 B. was used as a possible [hypothetical] market cap for ICG. That may be low if VERT alone has a mkt. cap. of $714M. currently. This alters, but does not invalidate the conclusions IMO.- that being that the market has discounted the future as much as its going to for now and that a peak in SFEs price would occur at or just before the VERT offering. That is different from the conclusion of some others [not so much on SI] that there would be a huge spike in SFE's price at the offering. The peak did in fact occur 4 days ahead of the offering, and post VERT, SFE is app. $7 below that high. The discounting started way back in Oct. when SFE was trading at a $5 premium to NAV which was out of character for what it should be doing based on its historical patterns. Of course the discounting accelerated in a mad rush from early Jan. and took SFE from $27 to $47. SFE is sitting right on support around $40, and if it breaks this, next support would be at its moving average around $36 [and moving up slightly each day]. In light of the revised potential for ICG to impact SFE's NAV, I will be somewhat more aggressive in re-instituting a long trading position on possible pullbacks. It still seems likely that the called for post VERT "hangover" will continue as there is/will be an emotional letdown now that VERT is out and no date has been set [to my knowledge] for an ICG public offering. Thanks again to Bob and Investorseer. This highlights the value of these boards and their potential for helping each of us get insight and information that might not otherwise be obtainable-so we can all profit. Thanks also, to John Arnopp, who put up a stirring defense of my honor on the Yahoo board [where I am currently not able to post because of a technical glitch]. Make no mistake, I am a long term bull on SFE and will not disturb the core holding. It is apparent however that attitudes toward SFE go through rather wild emotional swings, providing opportunity for short term trading if one is so inclined. Enjoy the remainder of the weekend. Mike

To: robert miller who wrote (2264)	2/14/1999 10:26:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

What is VERT really worth? From a slightly different angle, the market is saying it is worth approx. 130M. oz of silver, or 1 Billion lbs. of copper, or 25 M. oz of gold, or 238 million bushels of wheat, or 60 million barrels of oil. [I was going to do this comparison with the mkt. cap of MSFT, but the calculator started smoking!] Of course this is more extreme than comparing apples to oranges, but may shed some insight into just where the market is valuing certain financial assets. Compare the above commodities to VERT with a few $M in sales and substantial losses, but with what appears to be a bright future. Is it worth it? One could say yes, by definition, because the market is voting with it's pocketbook. That is true currently, but potentially dangerous in the long run, as in 1989 the market was saying that the value of real estate in Tokyo was worth as much as all the real estate in the U.S. That is no longer the case as real estate in Japan has had a major adjustment downward for now 10 years. This mania for financial assets seems a bit out of touch with the real world and other valuations. Even if one totally rejects the view that there may be a major disconnect between the valuation of -especially some internet stocks and their comparison to tangible assets, and one compares VERT to other financial assets, the valuation seems ahh...ample. According to Bob Miller, VERT has a market cap of $714M. The market is saying that VERT is worth almost exactly 50% of the value of Safeguard Scientifics [$1.42B] with all their public and private holdings [including VERT and ICG itself!]. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy the party as much as anyone, [and am most grateful to be making a living here rather than raising cattle or wheat] but at some point the dangers of current pricing models will become uncomfortably apparent. Have a great week, Mike