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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Wright who wrote (9590)	2/13/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 19080

Absolute agreement on my part...

To: John Wright who wrote (9590)	2/13/1999 4:07:00 PM
From: Richard Habib	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19080

John, ORCL only has 10% of the apps market vs SAP 36%. Correct me if I'm wrong but ORCL apps were growing at something like 16% which is quite slow. Isn't that the reason the stock was hit so hard in 98. In database while they have 43% of the market, the high end enterprise market is relatively saturated leaving the small to medium size enterprise market as the greatest growth area. MSFTs SQL 7 is a viable alternative to ORCLs products in that market, and although having less features it's less than 1/3 the price. MSFTs aggressive pricing and freebie services not to mention their NT leverage could be a problem for ORCL maintaining the growth rate in databases required to support present lofty valuations. 8i and the "Raw Iron" are both good concepts but for the IT managers represent a radical departure. Given most IT managers conservative outlook, MSFTs SQL 7 alternative may possibly stall 8i adoption in the small to medium enterprise market. ORCL is selling at the high end of it's historical valuations on 8i hype. On the other hand it's growth appears to be slowing somewhat from historical 35% growth rates. ORCL will need to have 35% growth to maintain these valuations. A risky proposition given the market outlook as noted above and the fact that ERP and database markets are generally slowing for all the players. Rich