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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (2843)	2/13/1999 9:41:00 AM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

This article from the National Post, dated 12/10/98, is about Bell Canada's DSL product. The article offers an interesting contrast to the prior article posted about cable telephony. Notice the paragraphs in bold. In the same geographic market, Bell Canada & Nortel, with DSL, are competing with Videotron and Cisco with cable access. nortel.com Bell Canada Takes on Cable Companies with Internet Access Nortel's DSL Technology: Customers Will Pay a Premium For the Extra Speed By David Akin 12/10/98 National Post Bell Canada is the first Canadian telephone company to jump into the high-speed residential Internet access market with a pricing plan aimed straight at what had been the exclusive franchise of Canada's cable companies. Bell Global Solutions announced yesterday it would offer a high-speed residential service immediately in Quebec City, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto. The service would use Northern Telecom Ltd.'s 1-Meg Modem, a device that uses digital synchronous line ( DSL ) technology to transfer data over copper phone lines at speeds of up to 960,000 bits per second. In choosing the Nortel DSL technology, Bell said it will not pursue implementing faster but more expensive DSL technologies for household use. Other types of DSL technologies can move data over the Internet at speeds of up to 10 million bits per second. Cable modems can transfer data from the Internet to a consumer's PC at speeds of up to 1.5 million bits per second. Most consumers access the Internet over phone lines at speeds of between 30,000 and 50,000 bits per second. Higher-speed modems let consumers access a richer array of multimedia services, such as online gaming, short videos, and photo-rich Web sites. Nortel's 1-Meg Modem has another characteristic long coveted by consumers: it doesn't tie up the phone line which means a consumer can talk on the phone while surfing the Web. And, like cable modems, Nortel's 1-Meg Modem is "always on," which means a customer will be connected to the Internet whenever the computer is turned on. Consumers, though, will pay a premium for the extra speed and convenience. While regular dial-up Internet access service costs between $15 and $30 a month in most Canadian cities, Bell's service will cost $39.95 a month - the same price Rogers Cablesystems and Shaw Communications Inc. charges for Internet-over-cable service in Toronto and Ottawa. Le Groupe Videotron charges customers in Montreal, Hull, and Quebec City $34.95 a month for cable modem Internet service. Meanwhile, other Internet service providers are clamouring for access to phone and cable systems so they, too, can offer high-speed consumer service. "The rest of the industry is concerned that they can't do the same thing," said Ron Kawchuk, president of the Canadian Association of Internet Providers. "Bell is the monopoly supplier of copper and of the local loop, and it looks like they want to become the monopoly supplier of the DSL service." Internet expert Jim Carroll said that without competition from other providers, consumers can expect little downward price pressure for high-speed consumer access. "You've got the cable companies and you've got Bell. If the other providers can't play then you're not going to have that price competition," said Mr. Carroll. "I think it will probably sit at $39.95 for quite some time." Across Canada, there are about 130,000 cable modem customers.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (2843)	2/13/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

Re: Cable Telephony and VoIP Ken, Great article. I cut and pasted sections from it along with my comments below. Thanks, MikeM(From Florida) ------------------------------ "Indeed, engineers from the AT&T/TCI camp, where an IP telephony strategy has been heavily publicized as part of the planned merger, privately express uncertainty over the ability of the companies to deliver on the promise anytime soon. "We've got a lot of hoops to go through before anyone can say what the timing will be," comments one TCI executive, speaking on background." Hmm, I could be mistaken but I don't ever recall anyone from AT&T/TCI ever, "heavily publicizing," IP telephony to any large degree. I'm thinking most just assumed that this was the technology to get phone over cable. As we know it is not VoIP that is going to be offered. It's good old circuit-switched voice over cable. "The proprietary cablephone systems now in commercial operation from the two leading suppliers--Tellabs Operations Inc. and Arris Interactive, a joint venture between Nortel Networks and Antec Corp.--deliver digitized voice signals in the traditional time-division mode of circuit telephony in both directions over 6 megahertz (MHz) radio frequency channels via cable hybrid fiber/coax networks." This is where I think a lot of value is, "hidden," in TLAB, NT/Bay/ANTC. Just think how few investors know that there is actual working(!) cable phone technology these companies offer. I seriously doubt a lot of professional analysts even know about Arris Interactive and it's Cornerstone cable phone product. I think if it was well-known, these companies stock might not go through such wild fluctuations. "Bucking the tide of uncertainty, Le Groupe Videotron Ltee. and Cogeco Cable Canada Inc., two Canadian cable companies, have committed to launching IP voice services on a wide scale by sometime in the fourth quarter, a year ahead of when most cable TV engineers expect the migration to toll-quality IP voice to begin in earnest. Both companies are committing to Cisco Systems Inc.'s IP-over-cable solution in advance of standardization, knowing the vendor's approach is well along the standards path that the PacketCable task force is taking." If anyone can make the VoIP strategy work, it's Cisco's John Chambers. This guy has a lot of vision and has been the leader in VoIP. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Cisco is successful in being the first to offer toll-quality IP products. That's why I won't be selling (or trading) my CSCO investment for many, many years. I think Chambers has been very successful in telling the world that he sees an important future in VoIP. Maybe VoIP is the way he is going to indirectly get into the telco world? He seems to be pretty much set against a merger or partnership with any traditional telecom equipment suppliers. I bet his VoIP iniatitive must be doing well. Afterall he did start that push many, many years ago.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (2843)	2/15/1999 2:32:00 PM
From: DenverTechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

There are so many provocative statements in this cable telephony article I'm not sure where to start. Let's start with some house cleaning issues. First of all, the switched circuit systems from Arris Interactive and Tellabs use spectrum in increments of 2 MHz, not 6 MHz as stated in the article. Only the ADC system requires a full 6 MHz channel. I'm also amazed at the author's glee when reporting 5 percent telephone service penetration by MediaOne and Cox. If you are only getting 5 percent after a year, you are doing something wrong. Time Warner achieved 15 percent in Rochester on its first pass, and they have a waiting list for the service. The 5 percent number is dismal, and most MSO business plans require higher percentages to make the plan work. In my opinion, the migration strategy championed by the likes of Arris, Tellabs and ADC is definitely the way to go. I have seen a demo of the Arris system and it is sweet. Without the kinks worked out on IP voice and the technical, operational, and interoperability issues in place, IP voice will be a long time in coming. Circuit switched voice over cable took much longer than anyone anticipated, even WITH all the interface specifications and OSS systems available at the start. I believe the cable operators looking to do primary line IP voice in 1999 will be severely disappointed. As the article stated: the caution expressed by leading engineers will persuade most decision-makers to go the proprietary route until they are absolutely certain that IP is failsafe. I couldn't agree more.