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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (6305)	2/13/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: Gary Wisdom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, one question on your last update One thing I've noted is how thin the market was this last week. Volume has been pathetic. Remember how the naz traded over a billion shares like 20 straight days in January? We no longer are getting that kind of sustained volume during this sell-off, which is leaving me guardedly optimistic. volume on Friday on the Naz was 860MM. That is pathetic for such a strong downside day. Anyway, I rarely see you mention volume in your analyses. Am I placing too much importance on it? Also, regarding the new highs/new lows, I've watched the indicator on the naz and it hasn't been nearly as bad as the NY. In fact, I personally don't place too much importance on this indicator as the fact that we don't get a large number of new highs these days is reflective of the fact that we've been rangebound for weeks. Thus, few stocks will make new highs in this environment, and since few people are throwing money at small caps and mid caps, of course they're going to make new lows. Anyway, just my two cents. BTW, read your stuff religiously. Thanks so much for taking the time to help everyone out with your knowledge.

To: donald sew who wrote (6305)	2/14/1999 1:09:00 PM
From: Barbara Barry	Respond to of 99985

Don, As always, I appreciate your posts. That little harami might just be the "shot over the bow".I saw a similar one on a weekly chart in Oct '97. Now I am not calling for that kind of crash in the weeks to come simply because all these "crashes" lately have calloused the average investor and excited the dipsters.But technically the patterns are ominous..imho...We have tried too many times to get past 9400.This trading range shouldn't last forever.I think we bust out one way or another and fundementals and TA favors more downside risk.So I am with you and hope to get some March puts after expiry.I remember the days when you could hold a position for several days and make decent $$! :( Nowadays it's just one day at a time and hope for smaller gains.BWDIK Another "nasty" is the drop in the bellweathers and no sure signal of a strong rotation.The Russell is a mess.This market looks pretty aimless right now. Sitting on the sidelines for the next week except for a couple of stocks. Regards, Barbara

To: donald sew who wrote (6305)	2/16/1999 6:13:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald and all, The down move from 2/1 to 2/10 had a 5 waves pattern (more evident on the COMPX and NDX charts, recognizable on the SPX chart, non existent on the INDU chart). This suggests that there will be another down move after the ST up correction is over. The next down move can be a completion of a correction to the four months rally from 10/8, or a correction of a larger magnitude. If it is only correcting for the 4 months rally then the 2/1 to 2/10 was A of ABC, and on 2/10 afternoon started the B of ABC. If it is a larger scale correction then 2/1 to 2/10 was 1 of 5 of A and the ST correction up is 2 of 5 of A. Either way there should be another days down move once this ST correction up is over. The ST correction should be also of an ABC pattern, the A completed on 2/11 close and the B probably ended on 2/12 afternoon. Therefore I expact today will be up at least until the afternoon, completing the C of the ST correction. Wednesday open could still try the upside, but by then the ST correction should be over and we'll satrt the next down move. Originaly I was expacting this correction to be contained by SPX 1251, which it didn't. So the C of this correction could either reach SPX high 1250s-low 1260s, or take a flatter form and remain bound by SPX low 1240s. After that I expact Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to be down days. I expect the ST correction to end before Thursday open. If the up move is not over by then I'll have to change my read. The NDX big caps are clearly in the worst shape. They led the market up in the 4 months rally, and now they are leading it down. Since the NDX and COMPX broke the lower bound of their respective channels on 2/5, they never traded over their respective 13 DMA. Since 10/15 and until now, the NDX never traded under its 13 DMA for over one day. Now we had 6 trading days in which it did so. That indicates a big loss of momentum. I believe that the next move down could tak the NDX to the 1840s, and the next support is way down around 1700. INTC and CSCO look like they have completed their ST corrections on Thursday and will probably weigh on the NDX and keep it weaker then the S&P today and for the rest of the week. ATG

To: donald sew who wrote (6305)	2/16/1999 6:36:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 99985

Donald and all, With Globex up so much I forgot to mention the possibility that the up correction was already over. If the NDX makes a new local low (under 1924) then that is the case. If this happens then the outlook for the NDX is grim, and panic selling of tech stocks is possible later this week. DELL's report will probably be better then the (lowered) expectations, but this would not help much, because reality checks are bad for this kind of stocks. Maybe a very short lived relief rally on Wed morning, maybe none at all. ATG