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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (39837)	2/13/1999 1:58:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 164684

YHOO has a nice upward trend but the 50 day MA was pierced 5 times in the past couple of years. Previous times it went through this simple indicator it spent time there for at least a couple of weeks. Most of the time it went relatively lower than it has come so far on this visit. Historically you can look at this as a time to selectively buy on further dips. However, other indicators have look bearish and have not played themselves out IMO. What I am concerned about in trying to interpret the charts is the correlation between the rapid rise in the Internet stocks and the initial burst in growth of the Internet. There has been two general groups in which Internet growth has taken place - the hundreds of millions of people and corporations who already had PCs and internal networks, and the growth in new users. The largest initial market has been the wiring up of existing PC users. That market is expected to reach around 60% saturation by the second half of this year. 100% of saturation of existing users probably equates to 80% of PCs in use since some will never have a need or desire to hook up. The number of existing users adopting the Internet will decline rapidly. New users are coming on at a rapid pace but PC use is growing by tens of percent, not the 100s of percent increases we have seen in Internet use. In a few years time, new devices, such as Internet TVs, cable boxes, high-speed connections, Internet appliances and Internet phones will likley spur growth to new levels but that will not happen for at least a couple of years. WebTV and other early efforts have largely flopped. Imagine a graph of the growth of Internet connections. That graph would show a similar trend as you see in the vaulted Internet stocks: the underlying Internet usage has been the major factor that has propelled both the growth of the Internet companies and the awareness of new investors trading on the Internet. When that growth declines, IMO, it will release buying pressure that has maintained the high valuations. To give credit, the analyst's reports I have show a decline in growth of Yahoo, Amazon, and other Internet companies. As much as speculators appear to be looking out into the future and taking the prospects into account, I think it is obvious that the market has gotten caught up in the immediate flood of growth. I could very well be wrong in thinking that a decline in Internet growth rates will start to affect Yahoo and other stocks at this juncture. There is still a lot to get excited about: the Internet is growing rapidly. The leaders continue to be lavished with attention, and competition can still be ignored. But the awareness of the effects of the new level of price competitiveness the Internet precipitates is starting to come out in facts rather than just theory

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (39837)	2/16/1999 4:30:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Kazaaam! Yahoo! hit the brick wall of over-bought. The TA said it was a sell according to most indicators and it has plundged. That was helped by the fact that the CEO sold $25 million worth - right during the period when the stock was peaking. This market action doesn't bode well for either Amazon or Yahoo! Unable to muster continued support from the momo crowd and realizing that their window of opportunity will soon enough slip by, the insiders are selling and others are timid to pick up their shares. As I've been saying - sell at every move up. Yahoo! and Amazon will be down 30%-40% more by this summer. Many other Internut stocks will be down even more.