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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (39839)	2/13/1999 11:26:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Olu, < that's why I'm watching from the sidelines with a 3 month target range of 73-80 > I cannot think of any price for amzn as more appropriate than any other. What do you measure it by? earnings ? book value ? revenue ? replacement value ? social worth ? Since all these measures fail to model the price of the stock, the only measure I can see is that people buy the stock in the expectation they can sell it higher. Basicly riding the momentum. At 73 - 80 might be the point for you, but by what measure would that be a bargain ? Why is the the "bargain" level not 160 or 140 or 120 or 100 or 80 or 60 or 40 or 20 or 10 or 5 ? I agree that there are price points at which the price bounces up, and which you can profit by. But may I offer a humble explanation for the last 3 run-ups (which lasted about one day each and fizzled down to lower levels.) The first one was approx 1/19/99. I read later that some hedge funds (Munder and NetNet) bought heavily below 100 and sold as the price went up) That is an external event that has nothing to do with fundamental value. If you know what's on the mind of fund managers, you can use your knowledge for profit. The second spike up was on approx 2/2/99. It was apparently caused by knowledge that the CEO of amzn would be on 60 minutes for an interview. People bought in the expectation that the TV exposure would cause increased buying. Apparently he did not cause a good implression. That fizzled also. Perhaps someone who knows the schedule of PR events may be able to profit from this sort of thing. Surely that had nothing to do with fundamentals. The third spike up (last thursday) happened on the expectation that a Bank of Japan meeting would result in a decision to monetize a $400 B bond issue. (I learned that from GST first. A day later it was all over the news media). That rally fizzled when the bank did not take the US suggested action. If you know the meeting schedule of world monetary authorities, perhaps you can jump into amzn ahead of the crowd. Maybe all of these ramblings are just my imagination, but if someone can offer better explanations, please do. I am very interested. -Sarmad