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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daflye who wrote (6313)	2/13/1999 12:18:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>10 bagger downside play<<< Daflye, I'm thinking so far that February expiration will provide some buoyancy to the market before the real slide begins. At this point in the slammation pattern we need to work off the breadth oscillators so that they head back somewhere close to zero. Options expiration is a very mechanical thing where all those open contracts have to be unwound, and 10/12 times they are resolved to the upside. The beginning of the May '98 mini slammation was postponed by more than a week after the 39 calendar day count, at the May expirations Furthermore, there seems to be a distinct pattern the last year where important moves to the downside do not begin until the Tuesday after expiration. I would look to load up on March or April puts at the point the oscillators come back to zero and start to rollover. I would not go too far out of the money, so that any kind of decline will be profitable. However, the plunge of the a-d line Friday where it seems to have broken the congestion area from August '98, which was the left shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder pattern, may be an indication that the market wants to say bye bye now. I haven't reviewed Fridays's stats yet. decisionpoint.com Vitas