Chuzz: "Dell was not projected to do $5.8BB -- the Nile projections were $5,468.4 BB for the quarter (46.3% increase y/y). So to claim that Dell needed to exceed $5.8BB to surprise makes no sense if we assume anything over an expectation to be a surprise."
Hi Chuzz,
What the matter pussycat, don't you like this new insight on "Whisper Numbers"?
All we have to do now, to identify them, is set up Nile as the new Semi-God Of Earnings Expectations and take a mathematical formula and assign the Definitive All Inclusive Whisper Number to beat!:)
Chuzz: "The growth rate of the industry was somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 - 15% for the year. A company grower faster than that rate must, by mathematical certainty be gaining market share".
True. From my window, ( Hey, Volt has his porch) I sometimes look at the comparative growth of market share company by company as a factor in determining how much weight the community will place on the growth rate of those competing companies.
It is possible for two or more companies to grow faster than the "entire" industry and one of those, to be outgrowing the other "faster growing companies".
It also possible that this company would still be number one in that area, but the % rate of "outgrowing" (those that " outgrew the market") to show a declining period over period "outgrowing" % rate.
However, comparing % of last know growth rate by company against % of growth rate by competing company period over period, while it can give one additional insight, one must factor in the stage of development the compared companies are in, and its prospects for the future etc. And that is where judgment comes in.
Herein lies my frustration with certain judgments, it is illogical to expect that those declining outgrowth % rates, would be judged an automatic negative by some circles of the informed the investment community, when those rates may be normal or better then normal when considering one factors in the stage of development the compared companies are in, and its prospects for the future etc.
Yet we do seem to have some analysts who ignore, or choose to minimize this and use the numbers on face value. It is it because they think that short term they believe declining outgrow % will tend to drive the stock down, and so why swim upstream? Perhaps in part, but certainly this is not rocket science. It seemed to me with the proper criteria one can usually ascertain the real value(s) to place on these factors.
Sometimes even with a relatively good fundamental foundation, it is difficult to understand how certain analysts using similar criteria can come up with at times an entirely different conclusion. But then that is what happens when we get the Bulls and the Bears together for a chat. Here though we can readily see that the weight they place on "facts" is sometimes very far apart.
Perhaps if one wants to trade short term one needs to study the brain processes of some of these experts and their short term influence on the market. Difficult? Yes, but perhaps easier then TA in trying to short term, time the market.
Could be as simple as when MD speaks, buy as Kemble does? And when the " Mucky Mucks" attack sell and park on the sidelines? Hmmm … Now all we need is find out what we do in the interim. Got it, the public TA pundits are calling the market so much lately just go in and out when they say to…problem is they don't agree until the market is already heading one way or another.
Now that I properly have almost everyone angry with me, tonight I'll finish the job elsewhere!
Whatever, and now under the heading of breaking new ground, I still think you should be doing more work on your PEG theory. Are you lazy? Or just don't know where to go with this? Waiting for the world to be discover the sleeping giant within?
What makes our pussycat tick? Easy, QT you go too far! Not want to tick off our pussycat,need presence to keep QT interested (too late to keep QT sane).
QT bored, will now go to wife's party and speak in third party, tick off the academicians with thoughts beneath the earth and above the heavens. If I can't get to entertain myself,will share Voltaire's great insights and blow them away; should go over real big with the little woman(good,that takes care of Freeus and her liberation causes.)
OK, haven't the time to check stream of consciousness flow… Arthur would be proud of me.
God, seems like a long time till Tuesday's close!
If I get this Omega Trade Station, we might be able to get someone more adept then I (shouldn't be a problem:), to show me how to plug your formula(s)in against a representative number of stocks over a relatively long period of time. We'll see if (or should I say, by how much, by using it) we would have improved our ROI.
I would like to tie this into IBD's EPS and RS ratings to see just how it plays out over a period of time!
Hey thread, can you visualize that? What would we call it, the O'Cuzzaneil Factor?
( Chuzz, no claws please, QT tired, been fighting the Bears in my other life ;).
Regards
QT
PS
Hey,don't be so hard on Franz,he has potential and courage.After all, he did of his own free will, enter the domain of our hungry "Tiger". Looks like this may be a job for super MD. Might have to feed this creature some heavy duty earnings! |
