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Technology Stocks : Deswell Industries (DSWL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jmt who wrote (1201)	2/13/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: Bobcat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1418

Yes I agree with you. Also I do not think we should automatically think that management is necessary leveling with us either. So lets us a little precaution here. Things can and will get worse. Bad news usually comes in threes when dealing with the stock market. I would like for some of these followers to talk in a conservative manner and stop predicting the moon for this company. Sure it is a good company, but not resistant to Asian problems. We are looking at maybe $1.90 this year and that may be overstated. Who knows what next year will bring?

To: jmt who wrote (1201)	2/13/1999 11:44:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1418

My basic premise is simply that if you evaluated cyclicals during industry downturns, 9 out of 10 would like absolutely miserable - companies not even a value investor would touch. 1 out 10 might still look decent. Deswell is one of those. One of my rules of thumb is that a business is a value when it doesn't even need growth to be a great investment. In other words, if I did an LBO, I could be reasonably certain of earning back my investment in less than 10 years without any growth. I honestly thought Ron was overoptimistic, but it didn't really matter to me because it's a great long term hold below $15 IMO. This is how I invest. It's why I've bought into oil, tobacco, ag equips, ECMs. I don't see a fundamental shift large enough to threaten the business premise, and I definitely don't worry as long as the losses in any of these are manageable. When there aren't losses during the trough, all the better. Mike