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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (98798)	2/13/1999 3:29:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Howdy, Jock. It's been a while. Are you still into lsi? I couldn't stand the thought of the long recovery and put my focus elsewhere, but I've been surprised by their turn around. I'm glad the good folks on the lsi thread have been rewarded for their patience, though lsi is still a long way from their highs of 2q97. Dell is another story, and it's strange to see a normally positive investor like you playing the role of bear. My feeling is that short siders can make a good return quickly if they time it extremely well, but I would be cautious about holding a short position through the earnings announcement. Michael may just have set an elaborate trap for those who doubted him last quarter. Casino opens 2d 18h 5m Frank

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (98798)	2/13/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Ok fair enough,now lets go over what you have just said. ..'Increased Internet competition from CPQ; Firming DRAM prices; Rising interest rates; Increased cyclicality; Y2K cyclicality; and let's not forget new product line introduction, which is always expensive. This stock will hit 60 before it hits 130.'...' 1)Increased Internet competition from CPQ:- This is nothing new,they had this internet thing and website already for quite some time,just because 5fer came out on stage with some dry ice publicity doesn't change a damn thing if you ask me. At best they cannibalize some of their existing business which would have come to them anyway with or without the dry ice hoopla.Same holds true for IBM,HP,GTW and MUEI,nothing new or exciting here.<g> 2)Rising Interest Rate: I don't know where you ran into that piece of information but let us assume this is so or this may happen some time in the future especially if we continue experience robust growth in 99 instead of moderate growth,the point here is that this not something that is going to affect Dell exclusively as higher interest rate means higher interest rates for all including the competitors. 3)Increased Cyclicality: Sounds impressive but where may I ask you gathered this data from,if this is so again this not something that Dell will have to face alone,it will affect every one in the biz. 4)Y2K cyclicality. I know you saw that one in the press but there is no evidence of this happening if anything a lot of small and medium size businesses will be replacing their systems to avoid the Y2K bug instead of rewriting the codes as replacing the systems is less costlier than the other option,this can only increase the business.Now some of the main frame guys will resort to rewriting the codes and may end up spending a total of about a trillion dollars but what is that got to do with anything? It is also a fact large business will also replace their PCs to newer models.This is in fact stated by Michael Dell on various TV interviews during the Q3 earnings,I am assuming he was stating the facts. 5)New product introduction- I fail to see the logic of this argument at all besides this is not exclusive to Dell so I don't even know why you bring this up.This is an integral part of any dynamic and evolving business. 5)Firming Dram prices. Again not exclusive to Dell,DRAM prices go up and down as it has in the past there is nothing new there,other component prices also will have the same fluctuations.What I gather from this is that when DRAM prices and component prices go up it indicates strong demand and conversely when they go down it denotes a slack in demand. DELL have been quite successful during both of this periods but I can't say the same for all in the biz. Another point to remember is that Dell as a global company is operating in various countries with various economic conditions,some with high interest rates,sow with low,some where component prices are cheaper because of the location, some not,some where the economy is robust and then in some where the economy is contracting,and they are doing quite well in all of these economies thank you very much,while some others are faltering and losing market share. What surprises me is that you have completely overlooked DELL's business strategy and advantage over the others,instead focused on some perceived threat that Dell will have to face by themselves while in fact this is not so,in actuality the challenges that you pointed out are challenges any business will have to face and Dell has demonstrated over the years that they can run their company efficiently and profitably and grow its business better and faster than anybody under these circumstances and that is good enough for me right now. As for 'can you say $70.00 or $60.00' or whatever,yes I can, I can even go much lower and still be in the money,you?